Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.1% | 36.9% | -3.0 | ✓ (0.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.3% | 25.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.5% | 25.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -3 (58-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason * | 33 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Drue Drinnon * | 32 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Mason Harrell * | 30 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Tyrel Morgan * | 24 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Nate Martin * | 19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Nighael Ceaser | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Brandon Davis | 17 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Davion Sykes | 16 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Davion Coleman | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Brandon Love | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Fields * | 35 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Terrance Ford Jr. * | 35 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Avery Felts * | 29 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Omar El-Sheikh * | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Alaaeddine Boutayeb * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Markise Davis | 29 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Malcolm Farrington | 13 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Julian Lual | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter