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Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History
Coach: Mike Balado

2022 Team Stats (29 games)

70.9
PPG
68.1
Opp
+2.8
Margin
45.1%
FG%
31.1%
3P%
74.5%
FT%
36.0
RPG
15.6
APG
13.9
TO
-
Est. poss./game
67.1
Adj PPG
68.9
Adj Opp PPG
#197
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2021-2022
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 999 (#151) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1041 (#146) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +78 elo More → 1006 (#169) HCA +78 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More → -1.9 (#197) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.1 More → -2.6 (#209) HCA +2.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.510 (#171) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -3.3 More → 0.406 (#204) AdjNet -3.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -3.3 More → 0.406 (#201) AdjNet -3.3
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.1 | AdjD 68.9 More → 0.461 (#197) AdjO 67.1 | AdjD 68.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.0 | AdjD 67.9 More → 0.481 (#193) AdjO 67.0 | AdjD 67.9
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.469 (#192) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.473 (#191) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 149 | GP 26 More → 1025 (#159) RD 149 | GP 26

2022 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2021-11-09 vs Harding Bisons W 81 - 55
2021-11-12 @ Illinois Fighting Illini L 53 - 92
2021-11-15 vs Central Baptist Mustangs W 90 - 63
2021-11-19 @ Southeast Missouri State Redhawks W 72 - 60
2021-11-26 vs Morehead State Eagles L 51 - 75
2021-11-28 vs Kansas City Roos W 66 - 55
2021-12-04 vs Central Arkansas Bears W 95 - 82
2021-12-08 @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions W 84 - 73
2021-12-11 @ Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils W 82 - 77
2021-12-14 @ Texas Tech Red Raiders L 62 - 75
2021-12-19 vs Air Force Falcons W 68 - 46
2021-12-21 vs Lyon Scots W 88 - 66
2021-12-30 vs Georgia State Panthers - Preview
2022-01-01 vs Georgia Southern Eagles W 74 - 56
2022-01-06 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 77 - 83
2022-01-08 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 90 - 83
2022-01-13 vs Little Rock Trojans - Preview
2022-01-15 @ Little Rock Trojans - Preview
2022-01-20 vs UT Arlington Mavericks W 75 - 70
2022-01-22 vs Texas State Bobcats W 67 - 60
2022-01-27 @ App State Mountaineers L 54 - 61
2022-01-29 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 73 - 66
2022-02-03 vs UL Monroe Warhawks L 59 - 60
2022-02-05 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 67 - 58
2022-02-10 @ Troy Trojans L 77 - 79
2022-02-12 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 51 - 70
2022-02-17 @ Texas State Bobcats L 67 - 84
2022-02-19 @ UT Arlington Mavericks W 58 - 49
2022-02-23 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 69 - 74
2022-02-25 vs App State Mountaineers W 62 - 60
2022-03-03 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 81 - 77
2022-03-05 @ Georgia State Panthers L 62 - 65

2022 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Norchad Omier Norchad Omier - 29 28.9 17.9 12.2 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.7 11.1 21.1 92 25 3.7 5.1 63.2 33.3 72.9 3.42 66.8 63.4
D. Sills D. Sills - 28 29.7 12.6 3.6 2.8 1.8 0.2 2.5 10.2 8.4 47 24 2.0 2.6 44.6 25.5 72.7 0.21 53.6 49.1
M. Eaton M. Eaton G 29 31.4 11.5 2.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 2.8 10.2 6.0 57 25 2.3 2.9 36.7 31.2 87.9 2.16 49.4 42.6
C. Fields C. Fields - 29 31.2 7.3 3.6 4.4 1.1 0.1 2.0 7.0 7.4 48 25 1.9 2.5 33.8 28.1 83.6 -0.19 45.4 38.2
M. Davis M. Davis - 25 17.6 6.2 2.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 5.0 4.9 -49 22 -2.2 -5.0 47.6 31.6 69.7 -4.41 55.2 52.4
M. Farrington M. Farrington - 28 13.1 4.3 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 4.2 2.1 36 24 1.5 4.5 35.0 33.7 83.3 2.4 50.6 49.6
K. Wesley K. Wesley F 28 19.2 4.3 3.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.1 3.5 4.6 29 24 1.2 2.6 51.5 0 53.8 -3.97 53.0 51.5
Antwon Jackson Antwon Jackson F 24 12.2 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.7 2.5 4.1 -57 21 -2.7 -9.1 46.7 0 79.3 -3.81 54.3 46.7
Avery Felts Avery Felts G 23 14.4 3.2 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.5 2.7 2.9 -28 20 -1.4 -4.0 41.9 41.3 50.0 -2.38 57.2 57.3
C. London C. London - 2 11.5 2.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 3.5 2.5 - - - - 28.6 50.0 0.0 -2.63 33.6 35.7
Lazar Grbovic Lazar Grbovic - 14 5.4 2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.6 2 9 0.2 1.4 50.0 50.0 63.6 -0.73 55.9 52.3
C. Willis C. Willis G 16 12.1 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.4 -5 14 -0.4 -1.3 32.4 25.0 14.3 -2.07 38.7 40.5
M. Fantina M. Fantina G 10 4.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.0 -16 8 -2.0 -17.3 40.0 40.0 0 -2.76 53.3 53.3
N. Tingling N. Tingling - 8 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.2 -9 6 -1.5 -26.6 50.0 0.0 100.0 -1.63 79.8 50.0
C. Ndour C. Ndour F 5 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG