Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Illinois Fighting Illini | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.5% | 89.5% | +14.0 | ✓ (25.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.6% | 97.4% | +20.0 | ✓ (19.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.8% | 85.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois Fighting Illini +39 (92-53). Ratings: 2021-22 season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquis Eaton * | 33 | 5-14 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Caleb Fields * | 32 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Desi Sills * | 25 | 3-13 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -8 | - |
| Norchad Omier * | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Keyon Wesley * | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Antwon Jackson | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Markise Davis | 18 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Caleb London | 13 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Malcolm Farrington | 11 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Lazar Grbovic | 10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Christian Willis | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Nicolas Tingling | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Mario Fantina | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Frazier * | 29 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Coleman Hawkins * | 27 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 7-13 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 28 | - |
| Jacob Grandison * | 27 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Andre Curbelo * | 19 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Omar Payne * | 6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Alfonso Plummer | 27 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -2 | - |
| Da'Monte Williams | 18 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Luke Goode | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk | 12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | - |
| RJ Melendez | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Brandin Podziemski | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brandon Lieb | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Connor Serven | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter