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Little Rock Trojans 9-19
@
2022-01-13
Arkansas State Red Wolves 18-11

Model Predictions

Model Little Rock Trojans Arkansas Sta... Spread Projected
Elo
2021-22 season-end ratings
 12.5% (#296) 87.5% (#151) Arkansa... -12.5 65-77
Bradley-Terry
2021-22 season-end ratings
 18.9% (#296) 81.1% (#146) - -
Margin
2021-22 season-end ratings
 11.6% (#316) 88.4% (#197) Arkansa... -11.2 -
Pythagorean
2021-22 season-end ratings
 17.8% (#342) 82.2% (#171) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2021-22 season-end ratings
 9.3% (#318) 90.7% (#204) - -
Log Adjusted
2021-22 season-end ratings
 9.3% (#318) 90.7% (#201) - -
Points Off/Def
2021-22 season-end ratings
 25.5% (#322) 74.5% (#197) - -

2021-22 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.5 points per 100 Elo plus a 1.9-point home edge (2020-21 margin fit); projected score: 2020-21's average total of 142 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Little Rock Trojans Arkansas Sta...
Games 28 29
PPG 66.7 70.9
FG% 42.2% 45.1%
3PT% 33.7% 31.1%
FT% 73.5% 74.5%
RPG 31.4 36.0
APG 13.0 15.6
SPG 7.0 7.9
BPG 2.1 3.3
TOPG 13.9 13.9

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Little Rock Trojans Arkansas Sta...
Adj. Off Eff 91.8 98.3
Adj. Def Eff 108.2 101.7
Adj. Net Eff -16.4 -3.3

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Little Rock Trojans Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Myron Gardner 10.1 6.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 30.6
Isaiah Palermo 10.8 3.9 1.5 1.3 0.1 29.0
Nikola Maric 13.3 6.1 2.5 0.8 0.5 27.3
Jovan Stulic 7.8 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 26.1
DeAntoni Gordon 10.4 4.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 26.0

Arkansas State Red Wolves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Marquis Eaton 11.5 2.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 31.4
Caleb Fields 7.3 3.6 4.4 1.1 0.1 31.2
Desi Sills 12.6 3.6 2.8 1.8 0.3 29.7
Norchad Omier 17.9 12.2 1.2 1.6 2.0 28.9
Keyon Wesley 4.3 3.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 19.3