Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Troy Trojans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.0% | 58.0% | +1.8 | ✓ (0.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Troy Trojans +2 (79-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Fields * | 36 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Marquis Eaton * | 35 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Norchad Omier * | 32 | 12-16 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 26 | - |
| Desi Sills * | 24 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Keyon Wesley * | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Antwon Jackson | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Avery Felts | 15 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Markise Davis | 15 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Malcolm Farrington | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Christian Willis | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Lazar Grbovic | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Williams * | 34 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Desmond Williams * | 29 | 6-9 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | - |
| Efe Odigie * | 28 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Duke Deen * | 25 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Jakevan Leftridge * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Kieffer Punter | 25 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Christyon Eugene | 15 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Christian Turner | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| TK Smith | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Nick Stampley | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Rifen Miguel | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter