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Arkansas State Red Wolves 18-11
@
2022-01-15
Little Rock Trojans 9-19

Model Predictions

Model Arkansas Sta... Little Rock Trojans Spread Projected
Elo
2021-22 season-end ratings
 69.0% (#151) 31.0% (#296) Arkansa... -8.8 76-67
Bradley-Terry
2021-22 season-end ratings
 70.6% (#146) 29.4% (#296) - -
Margin
2021-22 season-end ratings
 77.4% (#197) 22.6% (#316) Arkansa... -6.8 -
Pythagorean
2021-22 season-end ratings
 76.2% (#171) 23.8% (#342) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2021-22 season-end ratings
 84.7% (#204) 15.3% (#318) - -
Log Adjusted
2021-22 season-end ratings
 84.7% (#201) 15.3% (#318) - -
Points Off/Def
2021-22 season-end ratings
 62.9% (#197) 37.1% (#322) - -

2021-22 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.5 points per 100 Elo plus a 1.9-point home edge (2020-21 margin fit); projected score: 2020-21's average total of 142 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Arkansas Sta... Little Rock Trojans
Games 29 28
PPG 70.9 66.7
FG% 45.1% 42.2%
3PT% 31.1% 33.7%
FT% 74.5% 73.5%
RPG 36.0 31.4
APG 15.6 13.0
SPG 7.9 7.0
BPG 3.3 2.1
TOPG 13.9 13.9

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Arkansas Sta... Little Rock Trojans
Adj. Off Eff 98.3 91.8
Adj. Def Eff 101.7 108.2
Adj. Net Eff -3.3 -16.4

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Arkansas State Red Wolves Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Marquis Eaton 11.5 2.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 31.4
Caleb Fields 7.3 3.6 4.4 1.1 0.1 31.2
Desi Sills 12.6 3.6 2.8 1.8 0.3 29.7
Norchad Omier 17.9 12.2 1.2 1.6 2.0 28.9
Keyon Wesley 4.3 3.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 19.3

Little Rock Trojans Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Myron Gardner 10.1 6.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 30.6
Isaiah Palermo 10.8 3.9 1.5 1.3 0.1 29.0
Nikola Maric 13.3 6.1 2.5 0.8 0.5 27.3
Jovan Stulic 7.8 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 26.1
DeAntoni Gordon 10.4 4.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 26.0