Model Predictions
| Model | App State Mountaineers | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | +0.7 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +2 (62-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Delph * | 40 | 6-12 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 13 | - |
| Michael Almonacy * | 37 | 2-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Donovan Gregory * | 37 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Justin Forrest * | 35 | 3-13 | 1-8 | 8-10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 6 | - |
| James Lewis * | 30 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| CJ Huntley | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Christopher Mantis | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| RJ Duhart | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desi Sills * | 35 | 7-12 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Marquis Eaton * | 33 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Caleb Fields * | 30 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Norchad Omier * | 26 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Keyon Wesley * | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Markise Davis | 20 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Antwon Jackson | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Malcolm Farrington | 18 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Avery Felts | 15 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter