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Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History
Coach: Mike Balado

2019 Team Stats (3 games)

73.0
PPG
71.7
Opp
+1.3
Margin
37.6%
FG%
25.0%
3P%
74.6%
FT%
44.0
RPG
9.3
APG
9.7
TO
-
Est. poss./game
70.4
Adj PPG
76.0
Adj Opp PPG
#254
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2018-2019
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt. More → Data withheld: source-integrity hold Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and has no verified season-bounded input receipt.
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 912 (#240) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +83 elo More → 937 (#268) HCA +83 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -5.8 (#249) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → -5.5 (#262) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.291 (#284) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.5 More → 0.274 (#251) AdjNet -8.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -8.5 More → 0.273 (#250) AdjNet -8.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 70.4 | AdjD 76.0 More → 0.375 (#254) AdjO 70.4 | AdjD 76.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.1 | AdjD 74.6 More → 0.400 (#276) AdjO 70.1 | AdjD 74.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.346 (#254) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.350 (#259) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 139 | GP 30 More → 902 (#242) RD 139 | GP 30

2019 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2018-11-09 @ Abilene Christian Wildcats L 73 - 94
2018-11-12 vs Missouri Baptist Spartans W 89 - 54
2018-11-16 @ Grand Canyon Lopes L 72 - 96
2018-11-23 vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks L 64 - 78
2018-11-24 @ Eastern Illinois Panthers L 86 - 90
2018-11-25 @ Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs W 77 - 69
2018-12-01 @ Lehigh Mountain Hawks L 70 - 82
2018-12-04 vs Evansville Purple Aces W 87 - 77
2018-12-08 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers L 56 - 72
2018-12-14 vs Florida Atlantic Owls W 75 - 71
2018-12-18 vs Missouri State Bears W 71 - 63
2018-12-22 @ Syracuse Orange L 52 - 82
2018-12-29 vs Harding Bisons W 87 - 62
2019-01-03 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 94 - 83
2019-01-05 @ UL Monroe Warhawks L 75 - 85
2019-01-10 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 66 - 65
2019-01-12 vs Troy Trojans L 85 - 90
2019-01-17 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 59 - 68
2019-01-19 @ Texas State Bobcats L 64 - 77
2019-01-24 vs App State Mountaineers W 82 - 81
2019-01-26 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 64 - 77
2019-02-02 @ Little Rock Trojans W 84 - 83
2019-02-07 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 62 - 70
2019-02-09 @ Troy Trojans L 79 - 84
2019-02-14 vs Texas State Bobcats L 74 - 84
2019-02-16 vs UT Arlington Mavericks W 83 - 79
2019-02-23 vs Little Rock Trojans W 72 - 65
2019-02-28 @ Georgia State Panthers L 60 - 76
2019-03-02 @ Georgia Southern Eagles L 70 - 81
2019-03-07 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 73 - 72
2019-03-09 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 87 - 90
2019-03-12 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 67 - 75

2019 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ty Cockfield Ty Cockfield G 28 35.1 21.6 3.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 2.9 5.1 21.4 -118 28 -4.2 -4.9 39.4 30.4 86.7 1.47 172.6 45.4
Marquis Eaton Marquis Eaton G 28 32.1 11.0 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.4 2.6 3.5 12.3 -77 28 -2.8 -3.5 35.7 30.0 80.8 1.23 140.7 41.8
Grantham Gillard Grantham Gillard G 28 29.0 10.1 5.8 1.0 0.9 0.2 1.2 2.8 13.9 -116 28 -4.1 -5.8 44.3 42.3 61.9 -2.44 160.4 58.2
Tristin Walley Tristin Walley F 28 24.5 7.0 5.6 1.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.8 12.2 -58 28 -2.1 -3.4 30.0 16.7 72.1 0.11 142.9 34.0
J.J. Matthews J.J. Matthews F 24 14.7 6.4 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 8.3 -3 23 -0.1 -0.4 50.0 0 68.8 1.94 196.0 50.0
Canberk Kus Canberk Kus G 21 16.9 6.2 2.6 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.5 0.9 9.1 -100 21 -4.8 -12.5 55.6 33.3 75.0 -4.85 328.9 61.1
Christian Willis Christian Willis G 23 13.1 4.0 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.7 3.7 -27 21 -1.3 -4.6 39.5 31.2 75.0 0.76 109.6 46.1
Salif Boudie Salif Boudie F 26 16.5 3.9 4.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 7.6 -64 25 -2.6 -6.5 65.0 0 80.8 -1.6 162.2 65.0
Malik Brevard Malik Brevard F 26 16.1 3.0 4.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.7 6.9 -97 26 -3.7 -9.6 52.6 0.0 33.3 -3.59 177.9 52.6
Kobe Wilson Kobe Wilson G 21 9.6 2.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.8 -76 21 -3.6 -15.8 33.3 33.3 60.0 -5.73 93.5 43.8
M. McKay M. McKay - 1 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Shaquillo Fritz Shaquillo Fritz F 21 11.3 1.8 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 4.4 -22 21 -1.0 -3.4 60.0 0 33.3 0.23 167.8 60.0
Jake Scoggins Jake Scoggins F 6 6.2 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 -5 6 -0.8 -4.0 0 0 0 -0.91 0 0
Jonathan Adams Jonathan Adams - 3 3.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG