Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | |||
| Bradley-Terry | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 74.0% | 26.0% | -5.8 | ✓ (4.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.6% | 17.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.7% | 17.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -10 (74-84). Ratings: 2018-19 season-end ratings.