Model Predictions
| Model | App State Mountaineers | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | |||
| Bradley-Terry | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.4% | 48.6% | -0.3 | ✗ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +1 (82-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronshad Shabazz * | 40 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 28 | - |
| Justin Forrest * | 39 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 25 | - |
| Isaac Johnson * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 14 | - |
| Adrian Delph * | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Hunter Seacat * | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| O'Showen Williams | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Tyrell Johnson | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Bennett Holley | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Michael Bibby | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquis Eaton * | 40 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 25 | - |
| Ty Cockfield * | 40 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 42 | - |
| Grantham Gillard * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | - |
| Tristin Walley * | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Shaquillo Fritz * | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Salif Boudie | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | - |
| Canberk Kus | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 23 | - |
| Malik Brevard | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Kobe Wilson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Christian Willis | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J.J. Matthews | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
* = starter