Model Predictions
| Model | Troy Trojans | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | |||
| Bradley-Terry | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | โ |
| Margin | 40.2% | 59.8% | +2.2 | โ (7.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | โ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | โ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | โ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | โ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -5 (85-90). Ratings: 2018-19 season-end ratings.