Northern Colorado2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1094 (#112) | Preseason prior 1091 (roster): base (last-season Elo, regressed) 1044, returning +70, transfers -24 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1060 (#110) | HCA +159 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1059 (#110) | HCA +158 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -7.0 (#225) | HCA +2.1 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.0 (#224) | HCA +2.1 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.244 (#232) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.396 (#202) | AdjNet -15.4 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.354 (#219) | AdjNet -19.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.433 (#195) | AdjO 54.4 | AdjD 65.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.434 (#195) | AdjO 54.5 | AdjD 65.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.435 (#189) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.435 (#189) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1055 (#126) | RD 195 | GP 2 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.515 (#154) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Hastings Broncos | W | 102 - 76 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ | Texas Longhorns | L | 29 - 91 |
| 2026-11-09 | vs | Northern New Mexico Eagles | W | 123 - 30 |
| 2026-11-14 | vs | Sam Houston Bearkats | W | 72 - 58 |
| 2026-11-16 | vs | UC Davis Aggies | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-21 | @ | BYU Cougars | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Nums/G | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tatum West
|
F | 4 | 31.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 23.0 | 47 | 4 | 11.8 | 15.1 | 76.7 | - | 58.3 | 3.44 | 74.0 | 76.7 |
Heather Baymon
|
G | 4 | 26.0 | 14.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 20 | 4 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 46.5 | 46.9 | 100.0 | 0.1 | 65.9 | 64.0 |
Da'Nae Jefferson
|
G | 4 | 20.5 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 43 | 4 | 10.8 | 21.1 | 45.2 | 50.0 | 57.1 | 1.45 | 58.7 | 58.1 |
Mia Galbraith
|
G | 4 | 22.8 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 62 | 4 | 15.5 | 27.0 | 36.7 | 22.2 | 90.9 | 3.93 | 48.8 | 40.0 |
Averie Varhaug
|
C | 3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 11 | 3 | 3.7 | 12.5 | 83.3 | - | 33.3 | -1.07 | 72.1 | 83.3 |
Neenah George
|
G | 4 | 25.8 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 15 | 4 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 30.6 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 0.75 | 35.9 | 30.6 |
Ellie Magestro-Kennedy
|
G | 4 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 54 | 4 | 13.5 | 56.4 | 47.4 | 50.0 | 75.0 | 0.7 | 67.4 | 65.8 |
Ericka Huggins
|
F | 4 | 14.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 50 | 4 | 12.5 | 35.2 | 52.9 | 16.7 | 100.0 | 1.99 | 58.7 | 55.9 |
Alex Pirog
|
F | 4 | 19.8 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 57.1 | - | 62.5 | -1.56 | 59.9 | 57.1 |
Lilah Moore
|
F | 4 | 14.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 17 | 4 | 4.2 | 11.3 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 100.0 | -2.22 | 50.9 | 41.7 |
Lucy Mead
|
G | 3 | 8.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 34 | 3 | 11.3 | 52.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 1.15 | 34.0 | 20.0 |
Erin Powell
|
F | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Nums/G = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA per game, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
242 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Heather BaymonTatum WestDa'Nae JeffersonEllie Magestro-KennedyMia GalbraithNeenah GeorgeAverie VarhaugEricka Huggins
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 65-97 | 67.0 | 130 | Tatum West 34% (44 pts) | Averie Varhaug 14% (18 pts) | Neenah George 25% (8 misses) | Tatum West 22% (7 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 6-24 | 25.0 | 12 | Averie Varhaug 17% (2 pts) | Da'Nae Jefferson 17% (2 pts) | Neenah George 33% (6 misses) | Heather Baymon 22% (4 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 6-18 | 33.3 | 12 | Mia Galbraith 33% (4 pts) | Alex Pirog 17% (2 pts) | Mia Galbraith 42% (5 misses) | Neenah George 25% (3 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 2-4 | 50.0 | 4 | Da'Nae Jefferson 50% (2 pts) | Mia Galbraith 50% (2 pts) | Da'Nae Jefferson 50% (1 misses) | Heather Baymon 50% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 5-11 | 45.5 | 10 | Ericka Huggins 40% (4 pts) | Mia Galbraith 40% (4 pts) | Neenah George 50% (3 misses) | Mia Galbraith 33% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 11-20 | 55.0 | 33 | Da'Nae Jefferson 36% (12 pts) | Ellie Magestro-Kennedy 27% (9 pts) | Ellie Magestro-Kennedy 22% (2 misses) | Ericka Huggins 22% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 5-12 | 41.7 | 15 | Heather Baymon 60% (9 pts) | Da'Nae Jefferson 40% (6 pts) | Heather Baymon 43% (3 misses) | Ellie Magestro-Kennedy 14% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 12-28 | 42.9 | 36 | Heather Baymon 42% (15 pts) | Ellie Magestro-Kennedy 33% (12 pts) | Heather Baymon 44% (7 misses) | Mia Galbraith 25% (4 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 1-6 | 16.7 | 3 | Heather Baymon 100% (3 pts) | - | Ericka Huggins 40% (2 misses) | Heather Baymon 40% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 5-22 | 22.7 | 15 | Heather Baymon 80% (12 pts) | Da'Nae Jefferson 20% (3 pts) | Da'Nae Jefferson 29% (5 misses) | Heather Baymon 24% (4 misses) |