UC Davis
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
75.0
PPG
59.2
Opp
+15.8
Margin
41.4%
FG%
41.3%
3P%
65.1%
FT%
43.0
RPG
15.3
APG
12.5
TO
69.5
Est. poss./game
66.3
Adj PPG
60.0
Adj Opp PPG
#131
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 936 (#207) | Preseason prior 960 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1025, returning -12, transfers -53, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 963 (#198) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 964 (#198) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +2.8 (#139) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.8 (#138) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.572 (#139) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.537 (#146) | AdjNet +5.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.534 (#151) | AdjNet +4.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.562 (#131) | AdjO 66.3 | AdjD 60.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.564 (#130) | AdjO 66.4 | AdjD 60.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.517 (#158) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.517 (#157) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 939 (#210) | RD 177 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.464 (#171) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Jessup Warriors | W | 82 - 42 |
| 2026-11-06 | @ | Eastern Washington Eagles | L | 72 - 76 |
| 2026-11-08 | @ | Stanford Cardinal | L | 60 - 67 |
| 2026-11-12 | vs | Cal State Fullerton Titans | W | 86 - 52 |
| 2026-11-16 | @ | Northern Colorado Bears | - | Preview |
| 2026-11-20 | vs | California Baptist Lancers | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Avery Sussex
|
G | 4 | 31.0 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 47 | 4 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 42.2 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0.99 | 58.8 | 56.7 |
Marta Forsline
|
F | 4 | 28.2 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 27 | 4 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 40.4 | 44.4 | 30.0 | -2.24 | 47.0 | 48.1 |
Rebecca Donnelly
|
G | 4 | 24.5 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 73 | 4 | 18.2 | 30.2 | 55.9 | 61.1 | 50.0 | 5.24 | 71.3 | 72.1 |
Tegan Young
|
F | 4 | 24.8 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 32 | 4 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 40.7 | 20.0 | 90.0 | -0.68 | 52.5 | 44.4 |
Anna Bassett
|
G | 4 | 22.0 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 27 | 4 | 6.8 | 12.1 | 35.5 | 29.2 | 100.0 | -0.69 | 48.6 | 46.8 |
Sophie Lentfer
|
G | 4 | 22.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 22 | 4 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 41.7 | 44.4 | 50.0 | -1.75 | 50.5 | 50.0 |
Angeliki Ziaka
|
G | 4 | 25.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 36 | 4 | 9.0 | 14.2 | 30.3 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 1.2 | 36.9 | 34.8 |
Holly Ensoll
|
C | 4 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 22 | 4 | 5.5 | 24.2 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 57.1 | 1.47 | 53.1 | 50.0 |
Emmy Ersdala
|
G | 4 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 33 | 4 | 8.2 | 33.2 | 42.9 | 33.3 | 0 | -0.2 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
Taylor Hicks
|
F | 2 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -4 | 2 | -2.0 | -13.2 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | -1.82 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
Carrington Davis
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Sahana Kanagasabay
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Theoni Tsami
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Layla Dixon
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
268 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Avery SussexMarta ForslineRebecca DonnellyAnna BassettAngeliki Ziaka
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 35-73 | 47.9 | 70 | Marta Forsline 20% (14 pts) | Avery Sussex 14% (10 pts) | Marta Forsline 34% (13 misses) | Angeliki Ziaka 21% (8 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 22-59 | 37.3 | 44 | Marta Forsline 23% (10 pts) | Tegan Young 23% (10 pts) | Angeliki Ziaka 27% (10 misses) | Sophie Lentfer 19% (7 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 2-9 | 22.2 | 4 | Marta Forsline 50% (2 pts) | Taylor Hicks 50% (2 pts) | Avery Sussex 43% (3 misses) | Marta Forsline 29% (2 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 0-0 | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
| Mid-range right | 2-6 | 33.3 | 4 | Angeliki Ziaka 50% (2 pts) | Anna Bassett 50% (2 pts) | Avery Sussex 50% (2 misses) | Anna Bassett 25% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 9-16 | 56.2 | 27 | Rebecca Donnelly 33% (9 pts) | Anna Bassett 22% (6 pts) | Anna Bassett 57% (4 misses) | Emmy Ersdala 14% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-10 | 20.0 | 6 | Anna Bassett 50% (3 pts) | Rebecca Donnelly 50% (3 pts) | Anna Bassett 38% (3 misses) | Avery Sussex 25% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 18-35 | 51.4 | 54 | Avery Sussex 44% (24 pts) | Rebecca Donnelly 17% (9 pts) | Avery Sussex 24% (4 misses) | Anna Bassett 18% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 9-30 | 30.0 | 27 | Marta Forsline 33% (9 pts) | Angeliki Ziaka 11% (3 pts) | Avery Sussex 29% (6 misses) | Anna Bassett 14% (3 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 12-30 | 40.0 | 36 | Marta Forsline 25% (9 pts) | Rebecca Donnelly 25% (9 pts) | Marta Forsline 28% (5 misses) | Anna Bassett 22% (4 misses) |