Air Force Falcons
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
65.8
PPG
58.5
Opp
+7.2
Margin
36.5%
FG%
31.7%
3P%
77.2%
FT%
43.3
RPG
11.5
APG
17.0
TO
70.9
Est. poss./game
54.5
Adj PPG
56.2
Adj Opp PPG
#190
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 936 (#205) | Preseason prior 939 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1007, returning -10, transfers -58, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 952 (#212) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 952 (#213) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.3 (#169) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.3 (#169) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.671 (#117) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.532 (#148) | AdjNet +5.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.575 (#139) | AdjNet +7.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.443 (#190) | AdjO 54.5 | AdjD 56.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.442 (#190) | AdjO 54.5 | AdjD 56.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.484 (#168) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.483 (#168) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 967 (#189) | RD 184 | GP 3 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.451 (#175) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Denver Pioneers | W | 66 - 45 |
| 2026-11-07 | vs | Saint Mary's Gaels | W | 61 - 37 |
| 2026-11-11 | vs | San Francisco Dons | L | 70 - 77 |
| 2026-11-14 | @ | Navy Midshipmen | L | 66 - 75 |
| 2026-11-18 | vs | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jayda McNabb
|
G | 3 | 35.0 | 16.3 | 14.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 11.0 | 22.0 | 46 | 3 | 15.3 | 18.4 | 45.5 | 25.0 | 77.3 | 3.99 | 57.4 | 48.5 |
Jordyn DeVaughn
|
G | 3 | 36.3 | 15.7 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 38 | 3 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 39.0 | 41.2 | 88.9 | -0.8 | 52.3 | 47.6 |
Keelie O'Hollaren
|
G | 3 | 33.0 | 15.3 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 13.7 | 9.7 | 33 | 3 | 11.0 | 13.5 | 36.6 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.11 | 52.2 | 47.6 |
Eva Love
|
G | 3 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 20 | 3 | 6.7 | 15.0 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -1.12 | 31.3 | 29.6 |
Alexis Cortez
|
G | 3 | 32.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 37 | 3 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 25.0 | 16.7 | 100.0 | -0.15 | 32.6 | 28.1 |
Julia Leach
|
F | 3 | 17.0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 17 | 3 | 5.7 | 12.1 | 45.5 | 0 | 0.0 | -1.24 | 43.7 | 45.5 |
AJ Mannering
|
G | 3 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 50.0 | 33.3 | 0 | -3.04 | 62.5 | 62.5 |
Marissa Hargrave
|
G | 3 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | -12 | 3 | -4.0 | -18.2 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -4.61 | 25.5 | 20.0 |
Chloe Parker
|
G | 3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 8 | 3 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Dixon McLanahan
|
G | 2 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.7 | 12.9 | 0.0 |
Madelyn Jensen
|
G | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -3 | 1 | -3.0 | -46.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Morgan Ainsworth
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Carson Fayard
|
G | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 46.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.27 | 0 | 0 |
Felicity McFillin
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Taylor Sipfle
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Marisa Taylor
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
185 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Jordyn DeVaughnKeelie O'HollarenJayda McNabbEva LoveAlexis Cortez
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 28-55 | 50.9 | 56 | Jayda McNabb 46% (26 pts) | Jordyn DeVaughn 18% (10 pts) | Jayda McNabb 33% (9 misses) | Jordyn DeVaughn 19% (5 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 9-34 | 26.5 | 18 | Eva Love 44% (8 pts) | Jordyn DeVaughn 33% (6 pts) | Jordyn DeVaughn 28% (7 misses) | Keelie O'Hollaren 20% (5 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 3-9 | 33.3 | 6 | Keelie O'Hollaren 67% (4 pts) | Julia Leach 33% (2 pts) | Alexis Cortez 33% (2 misses) | Eva Love 17% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 2-6 | 33.3 | 4 | Eva Love 50% (2 pts) | Keelie O'Hollaren 50% (2 pts) | Keelie O'Hollaren 75% (3 misses) | Julia Leach 25% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 4-11 | 36.4 | 8 | Eva Love 50% (4 pts) | Jordyn DeVaughn 25% (2 pts) | Eva Love 57% (4 misses) | Jordyn DeVaughn 29% (2 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 4-11 | 36.4 | 12 | Keelie O'Hollaren 50% (6 pts) | Chloe Parker 25% (3 pts) | Jayda McNabb 43% (3 misses) | Eva Love 29% (2 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 3-8 | 37.5 | 9 | Keelie O'Hollaren 67% (6 pts) | Jayda McNabb 33% (3 pts) | Eva Love 60% (3 misses) | Jordyn DeVaughn 20% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 4-23 | 17.4 | 12 | Jordyn DeVaughn 75% (9 pts) | Keelie O'Hollaren 25% (3 pts) | Jordyn DeVaughn 32% (6 misses) | Keelie O'Hollaren 32% (6 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 5-13 | 38.5 | 15 | Keelie O'Hollaren 60% (9 pts) | Jayda McNabb 20% (3 pts) | Eva Love 25% (2 misses) | Jordyn DeVaughn 25% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 5-15 | 33.3 | 15 | Jordyn DeVaughn 40% (6 pts) | AJ Mannering 20% (3 pts) | Keelie O'Hollaren 70% (7 misses) | Alexis Cortez 20% (2 misses) |