Northern Arizona
2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)
65.7
PPG
80.0
Opp
-14.3
Margin
34.9%
FG%
37.9%
3P%
76.6%
FT%
32.7
RPG
11.7
APG
16.7
TO
75.0
Est. poss./game
63.2
Adj PPG
68.6
Adj Opp PPG
#250
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 864 (#249) | Preseason prior 880 (returning production + recruiting): last season 924, returning -15, transfers -29, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 891 (#260) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 893 (#260) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.3 (#180) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -2.3 (#179) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.183 (#253) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.339 (#230) | AdjNet -7.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.333 (#233) | AdjNet -7.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.358 (#250) | AdjO 63.2 | AdjD 68.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.359 (#250) | AdjO 63.2 | AdjD 68.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.345 (#235) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.346 (#235) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 873 (#266) | RD 195 | GP 2 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.286 (#249) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | @ | Arizona State Sun Devils | L | 52 - 79 |
| 2026-11-10 | vs | UC Irvine Anteaters | L | 74 - 76 |
| 2026-11-14 | @ | Fresno State Bulldogs | L | 71 - 85 |
| 2026-11-18 | vs | Bethesda Flames | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaliyah Smith
|
G | 3 | 27.3 | 14.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -9 | 1 | -9.0 | -16.1 | 40.0 | 56.2 | 68.8 | -0.5 | 59.4 | 55.0 |
Morgan Hawkins
|
G | 3 | 36.3 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 4.7 | -29 | 1 | -29.0 | -30.9 | 34.8 | 42.9 | 80.0 | -3.3 | 49.3 | 41.3 |
Madison Watts
|
G | 3 | 25.0 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 5.7 | -22 | 1 | -22.0 | -33.9 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 92.3 | -1.47 | 38.6 | 25.0 |
Layla Davis
|
F | 3 | 15.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | -5 | 1 | -5.0 | -11.4 | 52.9 | 75.0 | 60.0 | -2.04 | 62.5 | 61.8 |
Emma Dasovich
|
F | 3 | 24.0 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -28 | 1 | -28.0 | -42.2 | 46.7 | 16.7 | 70.0 | -1.95 | 56.7 | 50.0 |
Shayla Cordis
|
G | 2 | 17.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | -3 | 1 | -3.0 | -73.5 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 87.5 | -1.07 | 56.4 | 37.5 |
Olivia Moore
|
G | 3 | 21.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 | -4 | 1 | -4.0 | -14.8 | 30.8 | 33.3 | 83.3 | -0.79 | 51.2 | 42.3 |
Alondra Lizama
|
F | 3 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -10 | 1 | -10.0 | -20.1 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -1.03 | 61.5 | 50.0 |
Leah Bullard
|
F | 3 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | -10 | 1 | -10.0 | -51.4 | 28.6 | 100.0 | 50.0 | -4.28 | 41.5 | 35.7 |
Tianna Knighton
|
G | 3 | 13.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 | -13 | 1 | -13.0 | -27.1 | 23.1 | 25.0 | 0 | -0.01 | 30.8 | 30.8 |
Ray'ven Robinson
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Micayla Silas
|
G | 3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -5 | 1 | -5.0 | -20.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Alyssa Harris
|
G | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | 141.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.49 | 0 | 0 |
Naomi Johnson
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
166 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
Aaliyah SmithLayla DavisMorgan HawkinsEmma DasovichMadison WattsOlivia MooreLeah BullardMicayla Silas
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 15-31 | 48.4 | 30 | Emma Dasovich 33% (10 pts) | Aaliyah Smith 13% (4 pts) | Madison Watts 19% (3 misses) | Morgan Hawkins 19% (3 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 17-56 | 30.4 | 34 | Madison Watts 29% (10 pts) | Layla Davis 24% (8 pts) | Madison Watts 31% (12 misses) | Aaliyah Smith 15% (6 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 0-10 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | Madison Watts 30% (3 misses) | Shayla Cordis 20% (2 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 2-5 | 40.0 | 4 | Madison Watts 50% (2 pts) | Morgan Hawkins 50% (2 pts) | Aaliyah Smith 67% (2 misses) | Tianna Knighton 33% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range right | 2-6 | 33.3 | 4 | Madison Watts 50% (2 pts) | Morgan Hawkins 50% (2 pts) | Madison Watts 50% (2 misses) | Leah Bullard 25% (1 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 2-7 | 28.6 | 6 | Morgan Hawkins 50% (3 pts) | Tianna Knighton 50% (3 pts) | Olivia Moore 60% (3 misses) | Shayla Cordis 20% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 2-3 | 66.7 | 6 | Leah Bullard 50% (3 pts) | Olivia Moore 50% (3 pts) | Aaliyah Smith 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Above-break 3 left | 3-13 | 23.1 | 9 | Aaliyah Smith 33% (3 pts) | Emma Dasovich 33% (3 pts) | Aaliyah Smith 20% (2 misses) | Emma Dasovich 20% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 1-8 | 12.5 | 3 | Layla Davis 100% (3 pts) | - | Micayla Silas 43% (3 misses) | Aaliyah Smith 14% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 14-27 | 51.9 | 42 | Aaliyah Smith 57% (24 pts) | Layla Davis 14% (6 pts) | Aaliyah Smith 23% (3 misses) | Morgan Hawkins 23% (3 misses) |