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Cal Poly

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Cal Poly Mustangs
Program History
Coach: John Smith

2020 Team Stats (3 games)

59.0
PPG
78.0
Opp
-19.0
Margin
40.4%
FG%
34.0%
3P%
53.2%
FT%
29.0
RPG
7.7
APG
18.3
TO
-
Est. poss./game
65.1
Adj PPG
74.3
Adj Opp PPG
#312
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2019-2020
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 611 (#341) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 741 (#334) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +96 elo More → 827 (#333) HCA +96 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → -9.6 (#310) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.1 More → -8.9 (#301) HCA +3.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.175 (#329) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -14.4 More → 0.161 (#307) AdjNet -14.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -14.4 More → 0.159 (#307) AdjNet -14.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 65.1 | AdjD 74.3 More → 0.302 (#312) AdjO 65.1 | AdjD 74.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 75.6 More → 0.340 (#316) AdjO 68.3 | AdjD 75.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.211 (#324) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.217 (#324) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 28 More → 705 (#333) RD 97 | GP 28

2020 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2019-11-08 @ Santa Clara Broncos L 63 - 77
2019-11-11 @ North Dakota State Bison L 67 - 74
2019-11-15 vs Simpson (CA) Red Hawks W 89 - 45
2019-11-17 @ Saint Mary's Gaels L 48 - 79
2019-11-22 @ Creighton Bluejays L 70 - 86
2019-11-24 @ Iowa Hawkeyes L 59 - 85
2019-11-28 vs Tennessee State Tigers L 72 - 82
2019-11-29 vs Long Island University Sharks L 69 - 82
2019-12-07 vs Siena Saints W 70 - 66
2019-12-14 vs Fresno State Bulldogs L 37 - 62
2019-12-18 @ Sacramento State Hornets L 56 - 57
2019-12-21 vs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners L 50 - 72
2019-12-28 @ San Diego State Aztecs L 57 - 73
2020-01-03 vs Vanguard Lions W 85 - 82
2020-01-08 vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 45 - 63
2020-01-11 vs Cal State Northridge Matadors W 74 - 56
2020-01-16 @ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors L 61 - 65
2020-01-23 @ UC Riverside Highlanders L 64 - 97
2020-01-25 @ UC Irvine Anteaters L 67 - 74
2020-01-30 vs Cal State Fullerton Titans W 101 - 100
2020-02-01 @ UC Davis Aggies L 51 - 66
2020-02-05 vs Long Beach State Beach W 92 - 75
2020-02-08 vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors W 79 - 75
2020-02-13 @ Cal State Northridge Matadors L 73 - 81
2020-02-15 @ Cal State Fullerton Titans L 101 - 105
2020-02-20 vs UC Davis Aggies L 62 - 77
2020-02-22 vs UC Riverside Highlanders L 49 - 61
2020-02-27 vs UC Irvine Anteaters L 76 - 82
2020-03-05 @ Long Beach State Beach L 73 - 80
2020-03-07 @ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos L 67 - 69

2020 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Y. Wetzell Y. Wetzell - 1 27.0 12.0 8.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 20.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
C. Hunter C. Hunter - 2 33.0 12.0 5.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 18.5 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Junior Ballard Junior Ballard - 3 24.7 10.3 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 3.0 12.0 0.7 -103 27 -3.8 -5.9 30.6 27.3 85.7 2.72 39.7 34.7
Colby Rogers Colby Rogers G 22 23.0 9.0 2.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 2.0 9.6 -134 27 -5.0 -9.7 32.6 27.8 66.7 -1.45 218.0 38.4
Tuukka Jaakkola Tuukka Jaakkola - 29 22.0 7.1 3.6 0.7 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 10.1 -138 27 -5.1 -10.1 64.5 0.0 57.7 -0.72 241.5 64.5
Jamal Smith Jamal Smith G 3 22.0 7.0 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 4.3 3.0 -99 27 -3.7 -6.9 53.8 33.3 62.5 1.24 63.6 61.5
Mark Crowe Mark Crowe G 3 9.7 5.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 2.7 4.0 -94 27 -3.5 -9.6 75.0 71.4 0.0 -2.87 95.7 106.2
Kyle Colvin Kyle Colvin F 3 25.0 5.7 4.3 0.7 1.3 0.0 3.3 6.0 2.7 -127 23 -5.5 -11.7 38.9 33.3 0.0 -2.32 45.0 47.2
Alimamy Koroma Alimamy Koroma - 25 14.8 5.3 3.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 7.7 -81 23 -3.5 -11.1 47.4 0.0 50.0 -0.58 273.9 47.4
Job Alexander Job Alexander G 22 16.5 4.0 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.2 0.6 6.5 -124 27 -4.6 -13.5 46.2 0.0 50.0 -2.93 252.9 46.2
Hank Hollingsworth Hank Hollingsworth F 3 10.7 2.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.7 - - - - 0 0 0 -2.79 0 0
Keith Smith Keith Smith G 3 21.0 2.0 3.7 1.7 2.0 0.0 1.3 2.7 5.3 -174 26 -6.7 -12.4 25.0 0.0 50.0 -3.73 30.7 25.0
Malek Harwell Malek Harwell F 2 17.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 -1.5 -131 22 -6.0 -12.7 16.7 25.0 0.0 -2.02 23.3 25.0
Colin McCarthy Colin McCarthy G 9 4.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 -6 10 -0.6 -7.2 33.3 0 25.0 -1.01 94.5 33.3
Jared Rice Jared Rice G 2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 -9 6 -1.5 -31.6 0 0 0 -2.56 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG