Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.2% | 19.8% | -10.9 | ✓ (14.1 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 80.6% | 19.4% | -7.8 | ✓ (17.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 68.9% | 31.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.6% | 10.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 89.7% | 10.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 65.5% | 34.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -25 (37-62). Ratings: 2019-20 season-end ratings.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mustafa Lawrence * | 40 | 1-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -3 | - |
| Nate Grimes * | 34 | 9-14 | 1-2 | 4-7 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 23 | - |
| New Williams * | 34 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Orlando Robinson * | 31 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Aguir Agau * | 17 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Anthony Holland | 24 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Niven Hart | 12 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Assane Diouf | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| CJ Hyder | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Lazaro Rojas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Rogers * | 32 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Kyle Colvin * | 29 | 0-8 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | - |
| Junior Ballard * | 28 | 3-13 | 0-6 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Tuukka Jaakkola * | 21 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jamal Smith * | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Alimamy Koroma | 25 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Job Alexander | 24 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Keith Smith | 12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Mark Crowe | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Colin McCarthy | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter