Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 61.8% | 38.2% | -2.6 | ✓ (12.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.5% | 32.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.3% | 26.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -15 (62-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Pepper * | 29 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 8-10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Matt Neufeld | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ade Adebayo | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Jaakkola * | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Colby Rogers | 21 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Job Alexander | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Alimamy Koroma | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Colin McCarthy | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter