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Alabama State

Also known as: Alabama State Hornets
Program History

2013 Team Stats (2 games)

52.0
PPG
70.0
Opp
-18.0
Margin
31.5%
FG%
26.3%
3P%
72.7%
FT%
33.5
RPG
11.5
APG
15.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
58.1
Adj PPG
72.7
Adj Opp PPG
#335
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 608 (#333) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 754 (#321) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +102 elo More โ†’ 928 (#269) HCA +102 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.1 More โ†’ -15.6 (#336) HCA +3.1
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.2 More โ†’ -12.6 (#328) HCA +3.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.175 (#316) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -24.4 More โ†’ 0.056 (#338) AdjNet -24.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -24.9 More โ†’ 0.054 (#338) AdjNet -24.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 58.1 | AdjD 72.7 More โ†’ 0.210 (#335) AdjO 58.1 | AdjD 72.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 67.6 More โ†’ 0.348 (#307) AdjO 60.7 | AdjD 67.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.167 (#332) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.187 (#327) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 139 | GP 31 More โ†’ 720 (#329) RD 139 | GP 31

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-09 @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders L 53 - 97
2012-11-11 @ Florida Gators L 35 - 84
2012-11-13 @ UCF Knights L 56 - 85
2012-11-16 vs Savannah State Tigers L 54 - 59
2012-11-25 @ Troy Trojans L 62 - 66
2012-12-08 @ Chicago State Cougars L 54 - 67
2012-12-10 @ Detroit Mercy Titans L 68 - 81
2012-12-13 vs Troy Trojans W 74 - 68
2012-12-15 @ Evansville Purple Aces L 67 - 80
2012-12-17 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets L 41 - 75
2012-12-19 vs Pepperdine Waves L 58 - 66
2012-12-20 @ UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros L 70 - 76
2012-12-29 vs Auburn Montgomery Senators W 73 - 50
2013-01-02 vs Jackson State Tigers W 70 - 66
2013-01-04 vs Grambling Tigers W 69 - 56
2013-01-06 @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions L 58 - 73
2013-01-08 @ Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils W 69 - 65
2013-01-12 @ Alabama A&M Bulldogs L 57 - 64
2013-01-19 vs Southern Jaguars L 67 - 79
2013-01-21 vs Alcorn State Braves W 49 - 46
2013-01-26 @ Prairie View A&M Panthers L 72 - 74
2013-01-28 @ Texas Southern Tigers L 65 - 97
2013-02-02 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions L 77 - 81
2013-02-04 vs Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils W 73 - 65
2013-02-09 vs Alabama A&M Bulldogs W 69 - 62
2013-02-16 @ Southern Jaguars L 49 - 58
2013-02-18 @ Alcorn State Braves W 66 - 58
2013-02-23 vs Prairie View A&M Panthers L 56 - 65
2013-02-25 vs Texas Southern Tigers L 50 - 70
2013-02-28 @ Jackson State Tigers L 65 - 70
2013-03-02 @ Grambling Tigers W 74 - 62
2013-03-14 @ Jackson State Tigers L 59 - 66

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Josh Freelove Josh Freelove G 32 29.1 13.6 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 1.7 5.9 10.5 -89 10 -8.9 -14.0 48.4 48.3 88.9 -3.43 107.7 59.5
Phillip Crawford Phillip Crawford F 26 21.5 12.6 6.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 2.0 5.2 13.4 - - - - 56.3 0.0 64.7 - 104.2 56.3
Shawntez Patterson Shawntez Patterson F 27 25.2 7.5 4.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.9 4.3 8.1 -26 8 -3.2 -5.6 28.4 21.0 43.5 -1.02 80.5 34.1
Denaell McDaniel Denaell McDaniel G 26 26.9 6.1 3.2 3.3 0.6 0.2 2.3 2.7 8.5 -19 8 -2.4 -4.1 33.3 38.5 60.5 -0.15 92.7 40.6
Stephawn Brown Stephawn Brown F 17 25.8 5.9 4.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.4 2.6 8.3 -65 5 -13.0 -24.0 44.4 30.8 75.0 -2.3 103.1 48.9
Ryan Watts Ryan Watts G 29 19.2 5.8 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.2 1.5 3.3 5.3 -28 8 -3.5 -9.2 34.0 27.8 67.7 -2.01 75.9 39.2
Jamel Waters Jamel Waters G 32 24.5 5.5 2.5 3.1 1.7 0.1 2.1 2.6 8.2 -10 10 -1.0 -1.9 43.9 22.2 76.2 0.5 88.1 45.1
Bobby Brown Bobby Brown G 30 17.2 5.0 3.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.1 2.7 6.4 -43 9 -4.8 -10.6 41.2 19.4 38.9 -2.11 85.9 45.0
Luther Page Luther Page F 32 20.9 4.4 4.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.6 1.8 7.2 -54 10 -5.4 -11.2 33.3 0 51.6 -1.54 83.4 33.3
Kimani Key Kimani Key G 3 13.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.0 1.7 2.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 -3.98 110.0 0.0
Joshua Mason Joshua Mason G 8 12.0 3.1 2.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.1 1.0 4.8 - - - - 25.0 0 0 -3.2 156.2 25.0
Dominique Miller Dominique Miller G 11 6.8 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.8 - - - - 33.3 0.0 0 -5.62 111.1 33.3
Jonathan Jefferson Jonathan Jefferson F 21 8.4 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.8 8 6 1.3 8.8 23.5 0.0 62.5 1.38 73.1 23.5
Anthony Price Anthony Price G 8 12.6 1.4 0.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 3.6 - - - - 0.0 0.0 50.0 -2.25 141.8 0.0
Timothy Coleman Timothy Coleman C 7 6.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.7 - - - - 0.0 0 100.0 0.16 156.2 0.0
Devonte' Neal Devonte' Neal F 7 7.0 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.7 2.0 - - - - 40.0 0 0 -1.86 80.0 40.0
Terrelle Green Terrelle Green G 3 10.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 -3.12 33.3 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG