UMBC
Model Outputs
2012-2013
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1052 (#299) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1113 (#302) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 953 (#489) | HCA +147 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +17.6 (#284) | HCA +3.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.3 (#331) | HCA +3.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.369 (#546) | AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 69.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.400 (#359) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.384 (#374) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 864 (#485) | RD 148 | GP 31 |
2013 Schedule & Results
2013 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R. Cook
|
G | 31 | 31.8 | 15.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 21.8 | -201 | -6.5 | -9.9 | 40.0 | 25.0 | 100.0 | -0.92 | 1505.0 | 43.3 |
C. Plummer
|
F | 31 | 26.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 19.2 | -151 | -4.9 | -8.1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.88 | 1451.7 | 20.0 |
B. Neller
|
G | 31 | 29.2 | 10.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 12.6 | -155 | -5.0 | -7.6 | 43.8 | 35.7 | 0 | -0.68 | 987.5 | 59.4 |
B. Roseboro
|
F | 19 | 25.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 16.7 | -113 | -5.9 | -10.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.55 | 0 | 0 |
J. Getz
|
- | 26 | 17.7 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 7.9 | -105 | -4.2 | -8.3 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 87.5 | -0.39 | 659.7 | 93.8 |
A. Morgan
|
- | 30 | 24.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 50.0 | 0.75 | 1393.4 | 75.0 |
A. Satchell
|
F | 31 | 18.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 7.5 | -112 | -3.6 | -8.3 | 37.5 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | 687.5 | 37.5 |
Q. Jones
|
G | 19 | 25.1 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 7.5 | -50 | -2.4 | -5.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.06 | 1016.7 | 33.3 |
M. Garner
|
- | 31 | 18.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 6.2 | -146 | -4.7 | -9.9 | 33.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | -0.78 | 1172.7 | 50.0 |
J. Wertz
|
G | 20 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | -41 | -2.0 | -8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.42 | 0 | 0 |
N. Basalyga
|
F-C | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
J. Wejnert
|
G | 13 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 16 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 |
J. Lane
|
- | 13 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -12 | -0.8 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 |
W. Wise
|
F | 5 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG