🐻⬇️🏀

UMBC

Also known as: UMBC Retrievers
Program History

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1052 (#299) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1113 (#302) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +147 elo More → 953 (#489) HCA +147 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +17.6 (#284) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -1.3 (#331) HCA +3.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 69.5 More → 0.369 (#546) AdjO 63.6 | AdjD 69.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.400 (#359) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.384 (#374) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 148 | GP 31 More → 864 (#485) RD 148 | GP 31

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-09 @ Pennsylvania Quakers L 75 - 80
2012-11-12 vs Eastern University Eagles W 70 - 52
2012-11-14 @ Loyola Maryland Greyhounds L 70 - 86
2012-11-20 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils L 82 - 83
2012-11-26 @ Marquette Golden Eagles L 46 - 79
2012-11-29 vs Canisius Golden Griffins L 65 - 83
2012-12-01 vs Towson Tigers W 66 - 62
2012-12-04 @ George Mason Patriots L 63 - 74
2012-12-06 vs American University Eagles L 70 - 73
2012-12-09 @ Norfolk State Spartans L 66 - 83
2012-12-12 vs Coppin State Eagles L 61 - 80
2012-12-22 @ DePaul Blue Demons L 61 - 69
2012-12-29 @ Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers L 55 - 58
2013-01-02 @ Albany Great Danes L 48 - 65
2013-01-05 @ Maine Black Bears L 66 - 81
2013-01-09 vs New Hampshire Wildcats W 68 - 57
2013-01-12 @ Vermont Catamounts L 53 - 68
2013-01-16 vs Hartford Hawks W 70 - 57
2013-01-23 vs Stony Brook Seawolves L 60 - 67
2013-01-26 @ Boston University Terriers L 75 - 81
2013-01-30 @ Binghamton Bearcats W 61 - 58
2013-02-02 vs Maine Black Bears W 68 - 67
2013-02-06 vs Albany Great Danes L 56 - 79
2013-02-09 vs Vermont Catamounts L 55 - 67
2013-02-13 @ New Hampshire Wildcats L 86 - 92
2013-02-19 @ Stony Brook Seawolves L 39 - 83
2013-02-23 vs Boston University Terriers L 59 - 68
2013-02-28 @ Hartford Hawks L 56 - 68
2013-03-03 vs Binghamton Bearcats W 59 - 49
2013-03-09 @ Hartford Hawks W 69 - 62
2013-03-10 @ Vermont Catamounts L 72 - 85

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
R. Cook R. Cook G 31 31.8 15.4 6.1 1.9 1.1 0.3 2.6 0.5 21.8 -201 -6.5 -9.9 40.0 25.0 100.0 -0.92 1505.0 43.3
C. Plummer C. Plummer F 31 26.9 11.8 6.4 2.1 1.7 0.4 2.9 0.3 19.2 -151 -4.9 -8.1 20.0 0.0 100.0 -0.88 1451.7 20.0
B. Neller B. Neller G 31 29.2 10.2 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 12.6 -155 -5.0 -7.6 43.8 35.7 0 -0.68 987.5 59.4
B. Roseboro B. Roseboro F 19 25.7 9.9 6.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.0 0.0 16.7 -113 -5.9 -10.9 0 0 0 -0.55 0 0
J. Getz J. Getz - 26 17.7 5.8 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.2 0.3 7.9 -105 -4.2 -8.3 75.0 75.0 87.5 -0.39 659.7 93.8
A. Morgan A. Morgan - 30 24.6 4.5 2.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 2.8 0.1 6.7 4 0.1 0.2 50.0 66.7 50.0 0.75 1393.4 75.0
A. Satchell A. Satchell F 31 18.4 3.5 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 7.5 -112 -3.6 -8.3 37.5 0 0 -0.4 687.5 37.5
Q. Jones Q. Jones G 19 25.1 3.2 2.7 2.5 0.5 0.1 1.3 0.2 7.5 -50 -2.4 -5.0 33.3 0.0 0 -0.06 1016.7 33.3
M. Garner M. Garner - 31 18.3 2.9 2.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.1 6.2 -146 -4.7 -9.9 33.3 100.0 100.0 -0.78 1172.7 50.0
J. Wertz J. Wertz G 20 7.5 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.5 -41 -2.0 -8.2 0 0 0 -0.42 0 0
N. Basalyga N. Basalyga F-C 1 11.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
J. Wejnert J. Wejnert G 13 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.4 16 1.1 4.6 0 0 0 0.26 0 0
J. Lane J. Lane - 13 4.5 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.5 -12 -0.8 -2.9 0 0 0 0.08 0 0
W. Wise W. Wise F 5 4.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG