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UCF

Also known as: UCF Knights, UCF
Program History

2013 Team Stats (4 games)

69.8
PPG
67.1
Opp
+3.7
Margin
47.7%
FG%
49.3%
3P%
64.4%
FT%
27.3
RPG
13.0
APG
17.0
TO
75.7
Pace

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1638 (#36) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1406 (#84) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +147 elo More → 1055 (#97) HCA +147 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +29.8 (#91) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +10.3 (#133) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.108 (#112) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -14.1 More → 0.176 (#177) NetEff -14.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -8.8 More → 0.266 (#86) AdjNet -8.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -8.5 More → 0.272 (#85) AdjNet -8.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 65.6 More → 0.548 (#157) AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 65.6
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.758 (#108) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.729 (#114) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 147 | GP 31 More → 1158 (#82) RD 147 | GP 31

2013 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2012-11-10 @ South Florida Bulls W 74 - 56
2012-11-13 vs Alabama State Hornets W 85 - 56
2012-11-18 vs Savannah State Tigers W 53 - 50
2012-11-20 vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders L 61 - 75
2012-11-23 @ Florida Gators L 66 - 79
2012-12-01 vs Florida Tech Panthers W 90 - 62
2012-12-12 vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats W 72 - 62
2012-12-14 @ Old Dominion Monarchs W 75 - 71
2012-12-18 vs Miami Hurricanes L 50 - 72
2012-12-20 vs Stetson Hatters W 83 - 66
2012-12-28 vs Howard Bison W 62 - 45
2012-12-29 vs Belmont Bruins W 66 - 63
2013-01-02 vs South Florida Bulls L 56 - 65
2013-01-05 vs Florida A&M Rattlers W 99 - 69
2013-01-09 vs UAB Blazers W 64 - 48
2013-01-12 @ East Carolina Pirates L 85 - 88
2013-01-19 @ Houston Cougars W 79 - 75
2013-01-23 vs Rice Owls W 78 - 67
2013-01-26 vs SMU Mustangs W 74 - 65
2013-01-30 @ Tulane Green Wave W 58 - 50
2013-02-02 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 71 - 75
2013-02-06 vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles W 60 - 58
2013-02-09 vs East Carolina Pirates W 83 - 73
2013-02-13 @ Memphis Tigers L 71 - 93
2013-02-16 @ UTEP Miners L 58 - 73
2013-02-20 vs Marshall Thundering Herd L 70 - 82
2013-02-23 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane W 83 - 75
2013-02-26 vs Georgia Southwestern Hurricanes W 65 - 50
2013-03-02 vs Memphis Tigers L 67 - 76
2013-03-06 @ UAB Blazers W 74 - 70
2013-03-09 @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles L 62 - 70

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
I. Sykes I. Sykes G 29 34.8 16.0 7.2 4.3 2.1 0.4 3.6 3.2 23.4 177 5.7 7.8 38.0 22.2 70.4 2.26 223.8 39.1
K. Clanton K. Clanton F 29 35.5 15.0 8.4 2.4 1.1 2.0 3.0 2.9 23.1 104 3.5 5.4 56.6 43.8 62.0 0.9 207.1 60.8
C. Newell C. Newell G 23 32.8 11.3 2.2 2.7 1.6 0.0 2.3 2.7 12.7 58 2.3 3.3 41.9 37.0 44.4 0.5 197.1 50.0
T. Spurlock T. Spurlock F 26 33.0 11.2 5.8 1.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.7 17.4 51 1.8 2.6 42.2 35.3 76.9 0.57 256.9 48.9
K. Wilson K. Wilson F 29 24.7 8.7 4.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.7 12.1 91 2.9 4.4 50.0 56.0 61.1 0.35 224.4 64.6
M. Williams Jr. M. Williams Jr. G 24 15.3 5.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 6.0 243 6.9 10.3 26.1 30.0 0 1.26 280.4 39.1
D. Walker D. Walker G 29 21.3 4.0 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 0.9 5.6 87 3.6 15.7 52.0 38.9 75.0 0.37 214.9 66.0
S. Blair S. Blair F 25 8.0 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 3.0 -22 -0.8 -2.6 80.0 0 50.0 -0.32 340.3 80.0
R. Days R. Days F 18 9.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.2 3.3 -8 -0.4 -1.3 0.0 0.0 0 -0.25 300.0 0.0
D. Karell D. Karell F 17 4.8 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.8 19 1.0 3.7 100.0 0 0 -0.01 266.7 100.0
I. Lang I. Lang G 5 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
T. Coons T. Coons - 6 3.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.2 -18 -2.2 -20.0 0 0 0 -0.26 0 0
B. Horodyski B. Horodyski G 7 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 -43 -3.9 -36.6 0 0 0 -0.52 0 0
R. King R. King - 2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6 -0.2 -0.6 0 0 0 0.32 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG