Model Predictions
| Model | Rice Owls | UCF Knights | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.3% | 82.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.9% | 84.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.1% | 96.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UCF Knights +11 (78-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Rice Owls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamir Jackson * | 38 | 7-12 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +2.4 |
| Austin Ramljak * | 35 | 5-9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +12.4 |
| Max Guercy * | 35 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | +5.7 |
| Julian DeBose * | 28 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | +11.5 |
| Seth Gearhart * | 24 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -2.4 |
| Keith Washington | 19 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | -5.9 |
| Bahrom Firozgary | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +7.4 |
| Ross Wilson | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.2 |
| Dan Peera | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.3 |
UCF Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Sykes * | 37 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 20 | +4.7 |
| Calvin Newell * | 36 | 6-12 | 5-8 | 7-8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 16 | -8.3 |
| Tristan Spurlock * | 34 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 14 | -2.4 |
| Keith Clanton * | 32 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-7 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 | -2.1 |
| Daiquan Walker * | 23 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -10.5 |
| Kasey Wilson | 25 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -2.4 |
| Matt Williams Jr. | 12 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -5.5 |
| Rod Days | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.3 |
* = starter