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Toledo Rockets

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Toledo Rockets
Program History
Coach: Tod Kowalczyk

2017 Team Stats (5 games)

78.8
PPG
73.6
Opp
+5.2
Margin
46.2%
FG%
36.5%
3P%
67.4%
FT%
38.6
RPG
16.4
APG
12.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
74.8
Adj PPG
72.8
Adj Opp PPG
#130
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2016-2017
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1074 (#126) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 995 (#183) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +89 elo More → 986 (#190) HCA +89 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → +1.9 (#133) HCA +2.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → +2.6 (#127) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.576 (#123) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.2 More → 0.591 (#128) AdjNet +3.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +3.2 More → 0.591 (#128) AdjNet +3.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.8 | AdjD 72.8 More → 0.545 (#130) AdjO 74.8 | AdjD 72.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 69.1 More → 0.558 (#118) AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 69.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.548 (#139) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.551 (#139) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 112 | GP 33 More → 1002 (#171) RD 112 | GP 33

2017 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2016-11-12 @ Saint Joseph's Hawks L 76 - 77
2016-11-15 vs Youngstown State Penguins W 103 - 98
2016-11-19 @ Wright State Raiders W 82 - 78
2016-11-22 @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders L 70 - 80
2016-11-25 @ Evansville Purple Aces W 83 - 79
2016-11-26 vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders L 70 - 73
2016-11-27 vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks L 77 - 102
2016-12-03 vs Green Bay Phoenix L 77 - 78
2016-12-07 vs Detroit Mercy Titans W 73 - 65
2016-12-10 @ Marshall Thundering Herd L 105 - 111
2016-12-17 vs SE Louisiana Lions W 78 - 56
2016-12-20 vs Loyola Chicago Ramblers W 74 - 70
2016-12-30 vs Ohio Christian Trailblazers W 98 - 58
2017-01-03 vs Buffalo Bulls W 86 - 54
2017-01-07 vs Miami (OH) RedHawks W 91 - 76
2017-01-10 @ Western Michigan Broncos L 74 - 90
2017-01-13 @ Central Michigan Chippewas L 88 - 96
2017-01-17 vs Bowling Green Falcons W 85 - 73
2017-01-21 @ Kent State Golden Flashes L 61 - 85
2017-01-24 @ Ohio Bobcats W 79 - 76
2017-01-28 vs Northern Illinois Huskies L 72 - 74
2017-01-31 @ Ball State Cardinals L 80 - 81
2017-02-04 @ Bowling Green Falcons L 100 - 104
2017-02-07 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles W 73 - 57
2017-02-11 vs Kent State Golden Flashes W 78 - 58
2017-02-14 @ Akron Zips L 65 - 71
2017-02-18 @ Northern Illinois Huskies W 88 - 80
2017-02-21 vs Western Michigan Broncos L 56 - 61
2017-02-24 vs Central Michigan Chippewas W 87 - 66
2017-02-28 vs Ball State Cardinals L 74 - 82
2017-03-03 @ Eastern Michigan Eagles W 60 - 56
2017-03-06 vs Bowling Green Falcons W 77 - 62
2017-03-09 @ Ohio Bobcats L 66 - 67
2017-03-15 @ George Washington Revolutionaries L 69 - 73

2017 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
J. Williams J. Williams G 22 34.1 19.4 3.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 6.0 18.5 65 27 2.4 3.0 44.4 33.3 78.8 0.92 144.7 51.1
S. Taylor Jr. S. Taylor Jr. F 23 32.7 15.3 12.7 3.7 0.3 0.5 3.7 4.0 24.7 41 28 1.5 2.0 57.6 33.3 50.0 0.71 163.2 59.2
J. Sanford J. Sanford G 23 36.4 12.0 2.4 3.3 0.6 0.6 1.6 3.2 14.0 38 29 1.3 1.6 36.5 30.8 69.7 -1.39 156.5 44.6
D. Dzierzawski D. Dzierzawski G 5 17.2 10.0 2.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 2.6 4.0 8.0 -6 6 -1.0 -2.6 55.0 100.0 81.8 -1.37 100.6 57.5
N. Navigato N. Navigato F 23 26.7 9.0 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 2.5 11.1 -22 29 -0.8 -1.2 32.8 30.8 66.7 -1.65 167.9 43.1
J. Lauf J. Lauf G 23 34.1 8.9 6.3 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.8 2.0 15.3 50 29 1.7 2.2 63.0 43.8 78.9 1.25 187.6 70.7
L. Knapke L. Knapke C 23 19.0 7.7 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 11.3 49 29 1.7 3.9 64.7 50.0 100.0 2.15 224.0 70.6
Z. Garber Z. Garber C 9 16.0 4.0 4.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.9 7.8 28 12 2.3 5.9 62.5 0 50.0 0.25 169.2 62.5
T. Adway T. Adway F 21 6.1 2.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 3.0 -18 25 -0.7 -4.5 55.0 0 45.5 -2.13 98.6 55.0
J. Roberts J. Roberts G 19 9.3 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 2.2 -27 25 -1.1 -5.4 11.1 20.0 0 -2.34 127.8 16.7
M. Schaffer M. Schaffer G 4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7 6 1.2 43.5 0 0 0 -0.16 0 0
L. Antunez L. Antunez G 11 5.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 -26 14 -1.9 -16.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 -4.42 60.8 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG