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Saint Francis Red Flash

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Saint Francis Red Wolves
Program History

2025 Team Stats (30 games)

54.8
PPG
65.9
Opp
-11.1
Margin
39.7%
FG%
33.0%
3P%
66.3%
FT%
34.4
RPG
11.2
APG
18.4
TO
66.9
Est. poss./game
48.6
Adj PPG
71.3
Adj Opp PPG
#348
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 668 (#320) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 752 (#318) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +72 elo More → 950 (#243) HCA +72 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -24.7 (#350) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.4 More → -23.9 (#353) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.107 (#323) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -16.4 More → 0.107 (#323) NetEff -16.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -37.3 More → 0.013 (#350) AdjNet -37.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -38.4 More → 0.011 (#350) AdjNet -38.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 48.6 | AdjD 71.3 More → 0.113 (#348) AdjO 48.6 | AdjD 71.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 54.0 | AdjD 65.8 More → 0.254 (#334) AdjO 54.0 | AdjD 65.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.096 (#346) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.114 (#344) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 144 | GP 30 More → 772 (#314) RD 144 | GP 30

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-04 vs NJIT Highlanders L 60 - 80
2024-11-09 @ Lafayette Leopards L 45 - 53
2024-11-12 @ Coppin State Eagles L 38 - 74
2024-11-15 vs Canisius Golden Griffins L 46 - 48
2024-11-17 vs Loyola Maryland Greyhounds L 52 - 65
2024-11-20 @ Robert Morris Colonials W 58 - 55
2024-11-24 @ Maryland Terrapins L 35 - 107
2024-11-27 @ Saint Joseph's Hawks L 35 - 88
2024-12-01 @ Duquesne Dukes L 71 - 85
2024-12-05 @ Delaware State Hornets W 69 - 60
2024-12-08 vs UMBC Retrievers L 45 - 61
2024-12-15 @ Butler Bulldogs L 38 - 95
2024-12-20 @ Rhode Island Rams L 37 - 77
2025-01-02 @ Central Connecticut Blue Devils W 79 - 63
2025-01-04 @ Stonehill Skyhawks L 59 - 73
2025-01-09 vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights L 55 - 63
2025-01-11 vs Le Moyne Dolphins W 73 - 41
2025-01-18 vs Long Island University Sharks W 63 - 54
2025-01-20 vs Wagner Seahawks W 51 - 47
2025-01-23 @ Long Island University Sharks L 56 - 63
2025-01-25 @ Wagner Seahawks W 50 - 48
2025-02-06 @ Le Moyne Dolphins W 66 - 60
2025-02-08 vs Chicago State Cougars W 63 - 58
2025-02-13 vs Stonehill Skyhawks L 43 - 74
2025-02-15 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils L 67 - 70
2025-02-20 vs Mercyhurst Lakers W 70 - 69
2025-02-22 @ Fairleigh Dickinson Knights L 33 - 60
2025-03-01 @ Chicago State Cougars L 55 - 58
2025-03-06 @ Mercyhurst Lakers W 80 - 65
2025-03-10 vs Le Moyne Dolphins L 51 - 62

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Natalie Johnson Natalie Johnson G 29 20.6 10.0 2.8 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.0 8.9 4.1 -116 24 -4.8 -10.0 47.3 42.9 62.9 -3.54 53.0 51.9
Marissa Shelton Marissa Shelton G 30 22.0 7.1 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.1 7.2 2.4 -118 25 -4.7 -8.9 34.9 26.9 75.7 -2.22 46.3 43.3
Kameryn Dorsey Kameryn Dorsey G 1 21.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 - - - - 75.0 0 50.0 - 71.7 75.0
Yanessa Boyd Yanessa Boyd G 27 27.2 6.9 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 2.6 7.1 3.2 -205 23 -8.9 -13.1 33.7 29.8 67.2 -4.16 42.3 37.3
Airah Lavy Airah Lavy G 29 17.1 6.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 6.0 1.4 -124 24 -5.2 -12.7 35.6 39.7 84.2 -3.43 54.3 52.3
Ineivi Plata Ineivi Plata G 30 29.3 5.6 3.4 2.7 1.4 0.2 2.2 5.0 6.2 -149 25 -6.0 -8.4 39.3 28.6 67.9 -2.3 48.5 44.0
Julianna Gibson Julianna Gibson F 30 18.8 5.1 3.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.5 4.3 3.4 -105 25 -4.2 -9.0 49.2 0.0 67.5 -0.85 52.5 49.2
Jade Campbell Jade Campbell F 24 11.1 4.5 3.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.1 4.2 3.3 -67 19 -3.5 -12.9 39.2 0.0 57.4 -2.47 43.6 39.2
Alary Bell Alary Bell F 20 11.3 4.3 3.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 2.5 3.6 2.9 - - - - 52.8 0 50.0 - 53.3 52.8
Harris Robinson Harris Robinson G 30 20.9 4.0 3.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.7 3.9 3.0 -148 25 -5.9 -11.8 39.7 33.3 66.7 -4.67 48.8 47.0
Marina Artero Marina Artero F 30 21.9 2.1 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 1.6 2.5 4.8 -113 25 -4.5 -8.6 37.8 0.0 66.7 -2.25 39.8 37.8
Giselle Eke Giselle Eke F 27 8.9 1.4 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.9 -91 22 -4.1 -18.7 25.5 0 65.0 -4.12 33.2 25.5
Gemma Walker Gemma Walker G 13 5.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 -0.4 - - - - 21.1 20.0 100.0 - 30.2 26.3
Fanta Daffe Fanta Daffe F 9 3.8 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2024-2025 Shot Zones

426 located field-goal attempts in 8 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Johnson21% Johnson33% Plata33% Johnson100% Johnson60% Plata50% Shelton56% Lavy47% Lavy60% Shelton42%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Boyd15% Johnson23% Shelton26% Johnson57% Johnson32% Robinson40% Johnson23% Lavy29% Lavy43%
Misses: who misses most here

Natalie JohnsonMarissa SheltonIneivi PlataAirah LavyHarris RobinsonYanessa Boyd

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 77-148 52.0 154 Natalie Johnson 21% (32 pts) Ineivi Plata 16% (24 pts) Yanessa Boyd 15% (11 misses) Ineivi Plata 13% (9 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 39-104 37.5 78 Natalie Johnson 33% (26 pts) Julianna Gibson 18% (14 pts) Natalie Johnson 23% (15 misses) Ineivi Plata 14% (9 misses)
Mid-range left 6-25 24.0 12 Ineivi Plata 33% (4 pts) Natalie Johnson 33% (4 pts) Marissa Shelton 26% (5 misses) Natalie Johnson 26% (5 misses)
Mid-range center 1-8 12.5 2 Natalie Johnson 100% (2 pts) - Natalie Johnson 57% (4 misses) Ineivi Plata 14% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 5-24 20.8 10 Natalie Johnson 60% (6 pts) Marissa Shelton 40% (4 pts) Natalie Johnson 32% (6 misses) Marissa Shelton 26% (5 misses)
Left corner 3 2-7 28.6 6 Ineivi Plata 50% (3 pts) Marissa Shelton 50% (3 pts) Harris Robinson 40% (2 misses) Ineivi Plata 20% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 9-9 100.0 27 Marissa Shelton 56% (15 pts) Harris Robinson 22% (6 pts) - -
Above-break 3 left 17-47 36.2 51 Airah Lavy 47% (24 pts) Natalie Johnson 29% (15 pts) Natalie Johnson 23% (7 misses) Airah Lavy 20% (6 misses)
Above-break 3 center 5-12 41.7 15 Airah Lavy 60% (9 pts) Harris Robinson 20% (3 pts) Airah Lavy 29% (2 misses) Harris Robinson 29% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right 12-42 28.6 36 Marissa Shelton 42% (15 pts) Airah Lavy 25% (9 pts) Airah Lavy 43% (13 misses) Marissa Shelton 43% (13 misses)