Montana State
Model Outputs
2012-2013
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1278 (#183) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1232 (#200) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 923 (#534) | HCA +147 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +20.5 (#216) | HCA +3.0 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.7 (#339) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.391 (#73) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.065 (#111) | AdjNet -23.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.062 (#112) | AdjNet -23.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.405 (#510) | AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 69.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.451 (#317) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.431 (#327) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 888 (#436) | RD 133 | GP 30 |
2013 Schedule & Results
2013 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C. Moon
|
- | 22 | 32.6 | 13.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 16.4 | -7 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 43.2 | 34.8 | 82.4 | 0.51 | 342.9 | 54.1 |
F. Davis
|
F | 28 | 25.8 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 14.4 | -24 | -0.9 | -1.5 | 44.6 | 25.0 | 62.5 | 0.05 | 223.3 | 46.4 |
A. Biglow
|
G | 25 | 27.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 13.8 | -7 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 43.4 | 36.4 | 80.0 | 0.13 | 230.7 | 50.9 |
X. Blount
|
- | 24 | 30.7 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 13.3 | -118 | -4.9 | -7.3 | 52.8 | 33.3 | 72.7 | -1.03 | 201.8 | 58.5 |
J. Stewart
|
- | 9 | 23.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 10.1 | -6 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 48.4 | 50.0 | 44.4 | 0.05 | 109.2 | 53.2 |
P. Egwuonwu
|
C | 27 | 28.9 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 15.5 | -3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 39.6 | 0 | 77.8 | 0.41 | 205.2 | 39.6 |
C. Coleman
|
F | 30 | 19.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 8.5 | -10 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 43.5 | 39.3 | 75.0 | -0.21 | 196.1 | 55.4 |
M. Colbert
|
G | 30 | 20.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 8.7 | -106 | -3.5 | -8.3 | 40.9 | 42.9 | 83.3 | -1.17 | 334.8 | 47.7 |
M. Dison
|
G | 28 | 14.1 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 44 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 75.0 | 0.53 | 203.9 | 23.8 |
D. Robison
|
F | 14 | 11.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 4.1 | -12 | -0.8 | -2.4 | 66.7 | 0 | 75.0 | -0.25 | 141.8 | 66.7 |
J. Budinich
|
F | 22 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -7 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 27.3 | 20.0 | 66.7 | -0.31 | 190.7 | 36.4 |
B. Brumwell
|
C | 29 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.3 | -46 | -1.6 | -7.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.74 | 747.4 | 33.3 |
E. Norman
|
F | 23 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 18 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 26.7 | 14.3 | 100.0 | 0.23 | 85.0 | 30.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG