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Montana State

Also known as: Montana State Bobcats
Program History

Model Outputs

2012-2013
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1278 (#183) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1232 (#200) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +147 elo More → 923 (#534) HCA +147 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → +20.5 (#216) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → -1.7 (#339) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.391 (#73) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -23.0 More → 0.065 (#111) AdjNet -23.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -23.5 More → 0.062 (#112) AdjNet -23.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 69.7 More → 0.405 (#510) AdjO 65.5 | AdjD 69.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.451 (#317) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.431 (#327) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 133 | GP 30 More → 888 (#436) RD 133 | GP 30

2013 Schedule & Results

2013 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
C. Moon C. Moon - 22 32.6 13.9 3.0 1.0 1.2 0.0 1.1 1.7 16.4 -7 -0.3 -0.4 43.2 34.8 82.4 0.51 342.9 54.1
F. Davis F. Davis F 28 25.8 11.2 4.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 1.7 2.0 14.4 -24 -0.9 -1.5 44.6 25.0 62.5 0.05 223.3 46.4
A. Biglow A. Biglow G 25 27.0 11.0 2.0 3.1 1.8 0.1 2.1 2.1 13.8 -7 -0.3 -0.4 43.4 36.4 80.0 0.13 230.7 50.9
X. Blount X. Blount - 24 30.7 10.5 4.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.8 2.2 13.3 -118 -4.9 -7.3 52.8 33.3 72.7 -1.03 201.8 58.5
J. Stewart J. Stewart - 9 23.0 9.4 4.0 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.9 3.4 10.1 -6 -0.6 -1.4 48.4 50.0 44.4 0.05 109.2 53.2
P. Egwuonwu P. Egwuonwu C 27 28.9 9.3 6.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.7 2.0 15.5 -3 -0.1 -0.2 39.6 0 77.8 0.41 205.2 39.6
C. Coleman C. Coleman F 30 19.3 6.9 2.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.8 1.5 8.5 -10 -0.3 -0.6 43.5 39.3 75.0 -0.21 196.1 55.4
M. Colbert M. Colbert G 30 20.5 5.5 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.7 8.7 -106 -3.5 -8.3 40.9 42.9 83.3 -1.17 334.8 47.7
M. Dison M. Dison G 28 14.1 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.8 5.6 44 1.5 3.5 19.0 20.0 75.0 0.53 203.9 23.8
D. Robison D. Robison F 14 11.7 2.3 2.6 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.4 4.1 -12 -0.8 -2.4 66.7 0 75.0 -0.25 141.8 66.7
J. Budinich J. Budinich F 22 5.5 2.1 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.5 -7 -0.3 -1.3 27.3 20.0 66.7 -0.31 190.7 36.4
B. Brumwell B. Brumwell C 29 8.0 2.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.3 -46 -1.6 -7.3 33.3 0 0.0 -0.74 747.4 33.3
E. Norman E. Norman F 23 6.7 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.3 18 0.8 2.7 26.7 14.3 100.0 0.23 85.0 30.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG