Model Predictions
| Model | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | Montana State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Montana State Bobcats +8 (76-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Stevenett * | 40 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 11 | -0.7 |
| Damon Heuir * | 37 | 7-20 | 4-13 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Jordan Johnson * | 27 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -1.2 |
| Jayson Cheesman * | 26 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | -9.6 |
| Tyson Koehler * | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2.3 |
| A.J. Hess | 27 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -4.0 |
| Wade Collie | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1.4 |
| Cal Hanks | 12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | +4.7 |
| Chris Nsenki | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.3 |
Montana State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Blount * | 34 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 5-8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Christian Moon * | 29 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 4-7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 19 | - |
| Flavien Davis * | 25 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +5.1 |
| Paul Egwuonwu * | 22 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Marcus Colbert * | 22 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | +7.7 |
| Antonio Biglow | 20 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -9.1 |
| Calen Coleman | 17 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Blake Brumwell | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Michael Dison | 11 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4.4 |
| Jeff Budinich | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3.9 |
| Eric Norman | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1.6 |
* = starter