Model Predictions
| Model | Idaho State Bengals | Montana State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.6% | 63.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.5% | 78.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Montana State Bobcats +2 (61-59). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Idaho State Bengals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hansen * | 41 | 7-14 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 18 | +1.0 |
| Andre Hatchett * | 36 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -5.4 |
| Melvin Morgan * | 34 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 3 | -11.0 |
| Neveij Walters * | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Tomas Sanchez | 38 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +4.3 |
| Ayibakuro Preh | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +2.6 |
| Sherrod Baldwin | 15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4.5 |
| Nnamdi Ezenwa | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Jakub Kusmieruk | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.8 |
| Nick Mason | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.8 |
Montana State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Moon * | 41 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Paul Egwuonwu * | 40 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | +6.2 |
| Xavier Blount * | 39 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Flavien Davis * | 35 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 16 | -5.5 |
| Marcus Colbert * | 23 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -0.5 |
| Antonio Biglow | 22 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1.5 |
| Calen Coleman | 18 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -1.8 |
| Michael Dison | 4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -2.2 |
| Blake Brumwell | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
* = starter