🐻⬇️🏀

Lakeland

Also known as: Lakeland
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1145 (#29) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 918 (#441) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 972 (#531) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -6.7 (#261) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -11.1 (#510) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.399 (#493) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -5.5 More → 0.308 (#413) NetEff -5.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -14.7 More → 0.155 (#512) AdjNet -14.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -14.9 More → 0.146 (#512) AdjNet -14.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 60.6 | AdjD 70.2 More → 0.294 (#508) AdjO 60.6 | AdjD 70.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.9 | AdjD 64.7 More → 0.370 (#565) AdjO 58.9 | AdjD 64.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.299 (#527) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.313 (#525) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 22 More → 935 (#389) RD 98 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Wis.-Eau Claire L 52 - 83
2025-11-09 @ Wis.-Stout L 56 - 74
2025-11-12 vs Dubuque L 75 - 77
2025-11-21 vs Loras L 56 - 69
2025-11-25 @ Wis.-Stevens Point L 51 - 69
2025-12-03 @ Illinois Tech W 68 - 39
2025-12-13 vs St. Norbert L 51 - 79
2025-12-17 @ Martin Luther W 74 - 57
2025-12-29 @ Marian (WI) W 60 - 52
2026-01-10 vs Benedictine (IL) L 68 - 69
2026-01-14 vs Marian (WI) W 57 - 43
2026-01-17 @ Concordia Chicago L 66 - 83
2026-01-21 @ Wis. Lutheran L 61 - 88
2026-01-24 vs Aurora L 68 - 81
2026-01-28 vs Illinois Tech W 56 - 33
2026-01-31 @ Rockford W 73 - 60
2026-02-04 @ MSOE L 40 - 65
2026-02-07 vs Dominican (IL) W 69 - 59

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Alexis Johnson - 18 25.9 12.9 2.8 1.2 2.9 0.1 2.9 10.3 6.7 8 0.4 1.6 42.5 28.6 61.7 1.81 51.0 46.8
A.T. Bartlett - 17 25.8 10.8 4.7 2.2 2.4 0.2 3.2 10.2 6.8 -72 -3.4 -18.5 32.2 27.7 80.0 -1.75 46.7 41.1
Lauryn Johnson - 14 23.2 6.6 4.9 2.1 0.8 0.0 2.5 5.8 6.1 -15 -0.8 -3.6 46.9 0 58.6 1.2 49.6 46.9
Sadie Grabow - 17 19.0 5.9 3.8 0.8 1.8 0.0 2.5 6.5 3.3 14 0.7 3.6 31.8 25.4 63.6 0.85 42.2 39.5
Jenna Shea - 13 15.9 5.6 3.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.8 5.7 2.5 -31 -1.9 -15.9 32.4 29.8 61.5 -2.66 45.8 43.9
Sydney Nimsakont - 17 15.0 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.4 5.1 2.6 -19 -0.9 -9.4 33.3 31.7 88.0 -1.02 47.4 40.8
Meghan MacPhee - 18 14.0 4.4 3.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.3 4.5 2.6 -31 -1.4 -12.4 42.0 18.2 60.0 2.95 45.1 43.2
Gabbi Glatczak - 1 12.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 - - - 66.7 0.0 0 - 66.7 66.7
Jiaryatou Cisse - 18 16.7 3.8 5.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.4 4.1 5.3 79 3.6 26.7 45.2 0 37.5 1.1 45.1 45.2
Madeline Sasis - 17 12.3 2.8 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.3 3.7 0.2 -33 -1.6 -14.0 30.2 29.2 33.3 -5.19 35.8 35.7
Madelyn Abler - 18 12.0 2.7 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 3.1 1.2 -15 -0.7 -7.0 32.7 22.2 73.3 -0.64 39.8 34.5
Amari Banks - 5 4.8 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 2.0 1.4 9 1.5 80.0 30.0 28.6 75.0 0.44 46.8 40.0
Ariana Vaitkeviciute - 16 8.0 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 -50 -2.5 -45.9 33.3 0 28.6 -2.67 33.2 33.3
Lydia Levra - 18 16.7 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 1.5 1.8 2.8 4 0.2 2.1 30.3 29.4 80.0 -2.66 41.2 37.9
Sonia Pagan - 15 10.7 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 2.0 1.8 -0.7 -63 -3.3 -66.7 14.8 15.4 50.0 -3.41 20.9 18.5
Katelyn Hauser - 1 8.7 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Jaylyn Caldwell - 1 4.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1 -1.0 -8.9 0 0 0 0.44 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG