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Aurora

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Aurora
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1160 (#18) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1155 (#85) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1118 (#77) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +17.2 (#47) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +12.0 (#192) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.915 (#228) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +30.2 More → 0.986 (#92) NetEff +30.2
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -51.3 More → 0.000 (#590) NetEff -51.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +9.6 More → 0.750 (#296) AdjNet +9.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +9.2 More → 0.748 (#297) AdjNet +9.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 64.8 More → 0.656 (#274) AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 64.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.3 | AdjD 58.2 More → 0.813 (#51) AdjO 74.3 | AdjD 58.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.785 (#139) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.793 (#132) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 109 | GP 21 More → 1171 (#89) RD 109 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ Blackburn W 105 - 48
2025-11-08 @ Webster W 81 - 47
2025-11-12 vs Knox W 89 - 65
2025-11-17 vs Colorado Col. L 59 - 62
2025-11-25 vs Judson (IL) W 95 - 61
2025-12-03 @ Wis. Lutheran L 46 - 62
2025-12-10 vs Benedictine (IL) W 78 - 57
2025-12-13 @ Rockford W 95 - 41
2025-12-17 @ Beloit W 91 - 43
2025-12-30 @ North Central (IL) W 83 - 59
2026-01-10 @ Edgewood L 63 - 68
2026-01-14 vs Concordia Wisconsin W 70 - 59
2026-01-17 vs MSOE W 53 - 48
2026-01-21 @ Concordia Chicago W 102 - 54
2026-01-24 @ Lakeland W 81 - 68
2026-01-28 vs Dominican (IL) W 94 - 59
2026-01-31 vs Marian (WI) W 102 - 40
2026-02-04 vs Wis. Lutheran L 64 - 70

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Krystyna Manzanarez - 18 30.6 16.9 4.1 3.0 4.3 0.3 2.3 15.2 11.2 291 13.9 60.8 39.8 26.9 75.3 4.82 49.5 45.1
Kylie Fischbach - 18 25.3 14.3 5.4 2.9 2.1 0.3 2.0 10.1 12.9 217 10.3 52.0 53.8 30.4 87.0 4.45 62.5 57.7
Riley Doggett - 16 25.1 8.7 5.2 1.4 2.2 0.2 1.7 7.7 8.3 213 11.2 51.9 39.8 32.8 86.4 2.96 52.4 48.8
Alina Anderson - 16 25.4 8.0 6.2 2.8 2.0 0.8 1.4 6.9 11.3 168 8.8 42.7 44.1 38.8 68.8 2.25 54.2 52.7
Jennifer Heinberg - 18 18.2 7.6 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.7 6.9 3.6 94 4.5 36.6 37.6 39.2 62.5 -1.01 53.3 52.8
Dani Antione - 17 22.1 7.0 3.2 1.8 1.6 0.1 1.6 7.4 4.7 219 10.9 85.3 32.0 21.7 67.4 2.94 41.3 36.0
Aurora Eklund - 17 17.7 5.8 3.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.3 4.6 4.6 155 7.8 63.1 45.6 40.9 60.0 2.79 53.7 51.3
Elizabeth Griswold - 17 11.2 4.1 3.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.1 2.5 6.5 55 2.8 29.6 57.1 0.0 59.5 -1.15 60.1 57.1
Courtney Schuk - 17 8.7 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.5 1.9 39 1.9 28.2 39.5 36.8 83.3 1.62 58.1 55.8
Ambriel Anderson - 4 5.9 3.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.8 0 0.0 0.0 33.3 16.7 100.0 0.18 53.6 38.9
Peyton Beck - 6 5.2 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.8 1.5 2 0.2 11.4 29.4 29.4 0 1.58 44.1 44.1
Jessica Oman - 14 7.0 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.1 70 4.1 56.9 40.7 40.9 50.0 1.42 57.4 57.4
Josephine Tenuta - 6 4.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.8 -0.3 -9 -1.0 -58.7 21.7 16.7 50.0 -0.1 28.3 26.1
Sierra Slaby - 6 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.7 -6 -0.7 -61.3 60.0 100.0 100.0 0.38 88.8 80.0
Marissa Kalamaris - 13 5.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.2 37 2.3 60.4 36.4 22.2 83.3 0.54 46.7 40.9
Ava Petersen - 6 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.7 -24 -2.7 -156.5 22.2 40.0 100.0 -0.1 40.5 33.3
Paulina Geyrhalter - 12 4.7 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.7 36 2.4 64.9 23.8 20.0 75.0 1.17 35.1 31.0
Katheryn Rutherford - 3 3.7 1.3 2.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.7 3.7 -5 -1.0 -24.6 100.0 0 0 -0.17 100.0 100.0
Tierra Abner - 4 5.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.0 1 0.2 9.9 20.0 0.0 100.0 0.18 34.0 20.0
Ariana Diggs - 5 2.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.8 4 0.6 87.3 0.0 0.0 66.7 0.65 23.1 0.0
Grace Prucha - 3 4.6 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Gwyenth Franz - 6 5.5 0.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.8 13 1.4 53.2 0.0 0.0 0 0.75 0.0 0.0
Chandler Eve - 5 2.6 0.0 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 2.0 6 1.2 130.9 0.0 0 0 0.65 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG