🐻⬇️🏀

Martin Luther

Also known as: Martin Luther
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 949 (#423) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 914 (#445) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 978 (#519) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -5.7 (#281) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -6.5 (#448) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.609 (#398) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +11.2 More → 0.810 (#218) NetEff +11.2
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +6.5 More → 0.716 (#272) NetEff +6.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -13.1 More → 0.181 (#497) AdjNet -13.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -13.4 More → 0.170 (#498) AdjNet -13.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 58.6 | AdjD 68.3 More → 0.293 (#510) AdjO 58.6 | AdjD 68.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 60.5 More → 0.469 (#434) AdjO 59.1 | AdjD 60.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.363 (#487) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.386 (#472) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 102 | GP 22 More → 983 (#342) RD 102 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-13 @ Augsburg - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs St. Catherine - Incomplete score
2025-11-17 vs Macalester - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 vs Hamline - Incomplete score
2025-11-21 @ Maranatha Baptist - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs St. Olaf - Incomplete score
2025-12-01 @ Wis.-Eau Claire - Incomplete score
2025-12-03 vs Trinity Bible (ND) - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 vs Maranatha Baptist - Incomplete score
2025-12-10 vs Luther - Incomplete score
2025-12-12 @ Carleton - Incomplete score
2025-12-17 vs Lakeland - Incomplete score
2026-01-05 vs Viterbo - Incomplete score
2026-01-07 vs Minn.-Morris - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 vs Crown (MN) - Incomplete score
2026-01-14 @ Northwestern-St. Paul - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 @ Wis.-Superior - Incomplete score
2026-01-21 vs Bethany Lutheran - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 @ North Central (MN) - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 vs Northwestern-St. Paul - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 @ Bethany Lutheran - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Wis.-Superior - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Mya Morris - 14 33.2 20.3 3.6 2.1 1.9 0.1 3.0 19.4 5.6 - - - 38.6 34.4 64.7 1.04 49.5 48.2
Wilhelmina Wenz - 22 31.2 11.6 10.1 2.2 2.0 0.1 2.3 12.0 11.7 - - - 31.7 25.9 56.8 2.87 42.6 39.6
Anna Kieselhorst - 12 30.0 11.2 3.9 1.8 2.2 0.2 3.8 11.1 4.3 - - - 36.8 24.6 55.0 -1.96 44.5 42.1
Lydia Feidt - 22 30.4 10.1 5.1 1.7 3.4 0.4 1.6 8.1 11.0 - - - 51.1 29.9 67.7 0.62 58.2 56.7
Ava Stein - 22 28.6 10.0 4.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 2.0 9.5 4.9 - - - 42.1 34.5 56.9 -3.0 46.7 44.5
Ella Walz - 22 29.9 3.9 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.1 1.1 5.5 3.1 - - - 25.8 17.5 57.1 1.67 32.9 30.4
Ava Walz - 22 17.4 3.0 3.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 4.0 - - - 31.2 6.2 60.9 -1.21 36.1 31.9
Heather Wendt - 11 8.5 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 2.5 1.8 - - - 42.9 10.0 88.9 0.31 51.6 44.6
Payton Holub - 1 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -3.0 - - - 25.0 33.3 0 - 37.5 37.5
Ella Schmidt - 22 8.7 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.2 2.5 0.4 - - - 26.8 18.2 52.6 -4.24 34.2 30.4
Ella Hunter - 10 4.7 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 - - - 50.0 66.7 0 -3.24 70.0 70.0
Chloe Koschnitzke - 17 6.6 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 - - - 32.0 13.3 100.0 0.58 37.3 36.0
Josslin Adams - 9 6.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.1 -0.4 - - - 10.5 0.0 75.0 0.49 22.2 10.5
Madeline Prahl - 7 4.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 - - - 50.0 0 50.0 -0.97 52.1 50.0
Keightan Rank - 12 3.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.3 - - - 10.0 0.0 50.0 2.3 13.8 10.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG