Marian (WI)
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 871 (#436) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 674 (#583) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 799 (#691) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -24.0 (#377) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -27.9 (#664) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.072 (#649) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.022 (#543) | NetEff -26.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.031 (#630) | AdjNet -29.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.028 (#629) | AdjNet -29.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.151 (#628) | AdjO 55.4 | AdjD 74.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.135 (#692) | AdjO 49.8 | AdjD 70.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.062 (#687) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.067 (#690) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 633 (#563) | RD 112 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Dubuque | L | 67 - 74 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | UChicago | L | 29 - 84 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Tufts | L | 51 - 84 |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Wis. Lutheran | L | 29 - 90 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Lawrence | L | 46 - 71 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Concordia Wisconsin | L | 65 - 90 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Edgewood | L | 54 - 79 |
| 2025-12-12 | @ | Cornell College | L | 38 - 81 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Maranatha Baptist | W | 93 - 23 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Lakeland | L | 52 - 60 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | North Central (MN) | L | 75 - 84 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Benedictine (IL) | L | 50 - 88 |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | St. Norbert | L | 45 - 71 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Dominican (IL) | L | 51 - 69 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Lakeland | L | 43 - 57 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Rockford | L | 48 - 60 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | MSOE | L | 39 - 87 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Illinois Tech | W | 65 - 47 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Aurora | L | 40 - 102 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Edgewood | L | 50 - 64 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Benedictine (IL) | L | 47 - 76 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea King | - | 20 | 26.9 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 14.5 | 1.6 | -219 | -10.9 | -68.2 | 31.4 | 23.4 | 54.8 | -0.87 | 38.7 | 37.2 |
| Ava Kreger | - | 19 | 19.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 7.4 | 0.7 | -69 | -3.6 | -53.7 | 30.0 | 21.5 | 63.6 | -2.07 | 40.5 | 36.1 |
| Taycee Schwanke | - | 21 | 18.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | -162 | -7.7 | -73.7 | 44.4 | 26.3 | 65.6 | -1.07 | 53.3 | 50.0 |
| Emily Eastham | - | 21 | 26.4 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 5.0 | 7.4 | -205 | -9.8 | -57.7 | 37.1 | 28.6 | 78.3 | -2.09 | 46.0 | 41.9 |
| Holly Goodwin | - | 21 | 19.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 3.4 | -118 | -5.6 | -40.7 | 38.1 | 20.7 | 77.4 | 0.53 | 47.0 | 41.2 |
| Jon'Niyah Akins | - | 21 | 19.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -188 | -9.0 | -59.0 | 23.4 | 11.8 | 47.8 | 0.96 | 26.8 | 24.8 |
| Nyedeng Awak | - | 21 | 19.8 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 6.3 | -176 | -8.4 | -72.8 | 40.0 | 25.0 | 33.3 | -3.52 | 40.1 | 40.7 |
| Emma Wiete | - | 2 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | -26 | -8.7 | -79.8 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.47 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Cassandra Arndt | - | 20 | 14.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | -70 | -3.5 | -85.9 | 31.2 | 29.0 | 80.0 | -2.3 | 41.7 | 38.3 |
| Taj Hanserd | - | 14 | 14.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 0.1 | -104 | -7.4 | -64.8 | 21.4 | 20.0 | 92.9 | -1.27 | 33.0 | 25.0 |
| Dasha Yeltysheva | - | 18 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 0.4 | -77 | -4.3 | -58.5 | 33.3 | 36.4 | 88.9 | -4.08 | 41.0 | 36.8 |
| Brianna Guelig | - | 15 | 13.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | -38 | -2.4 | -26.8 | 35.1 | 38.5 | 75.0 | 0.04 | 45.7 | 41.9 |
| Cheyenne Tyciak | - | 6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - | - | - | 37.5 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 56.5 | 37.5 |
| Ryleigh Woodson | - | 7 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | -32 | -4.6 | -52.7 | 31.2 | 0 | 0.0 | -2.21 | 30.4 | 31.2 |
| Taylor Ptacek | - | 11 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -25 | -2.3 | -94.0 | 38.5 | 60.0 | 0 | -1.1 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Kaitlin Leonard | - | 11 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.9 | -0.5 | -1 | -0.1 | -10.5 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 0 | -0.01 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG