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Duke

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Duke Blue Devils, Duke
Program History
Coach: Mike Krzyzewski

2021 Team Stats (5 games)

72.6
PPG
66.8
Opp
+5.8
Margin
48.0%
FG%
33.9%
3P%
62.5%
FT%
36.6
RPG
15.0
APG
13.6
TO
-
Est. poss./game
77.7
Adj PPG
67.2
Adj Opp PPG
#44
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2020-2021
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1267 (#41) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1074 (#115) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +66 elo More → 1020 (#133) HCA +66 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +1.9 More → +12.6 (#42) HCA +1.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.0 More → +11.5 (#43) HCA +2.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.676 (#82) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.7 More → 0.885 (#41) AdjNet +17.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +18.0 More → 0.888 (#41) AdjNet +18.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 77.7 | AdjD 67.2 More → 0.723 (#44) AdjO 77.7 | AdjD 67.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.2 | AdjD 69.1 More → 0.634 (#51) AdjO 75.2 | AdjD 69.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.740 (#48) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.724 (#50) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 136 | GP 24 More → 1101 (#89) RD 136 | GP 24

2021 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2020-11-25 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs - Postponed
2020-11-28 vs Coppin State Eagles W 81 - 71
2020-12-01 vs Michigan State Spartans L 69 - 75
2020-12-04 vs Bellarmine Knights W 76 - 54
2020-12-06 vs Elon Phoenix - Preview
2020-12-08 vs Illinois Fighting Illini L 68 - 83
2020-12-12 vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers - Preview
2020-12-16 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 75 - 65
2020-12-19 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs - Preview
2020-12-29 vs Pittsburgh Panthers - Preview
2021-01-02 @ Florida State Seminoles - Preview
2021-01-06 vs Boston College Eagles W 83 - 82
2021-01-09 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 79 - 68
2021-01-12 @ Virginia Tech Hokies L 67 - 74
2021-01-19 @ Pittsburgh Panthers L 73 - 79
2021-01-23 @ Louisville Cardinals L 65 - 70
2021-01-26 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets W 75 - 68
2021-01-30 vs Clemson Tigers W 79 - 53
2021-02-01 @ Miami Hurricanes L 75 - 77
2021-02-06 vs North Carolina Tar Heels L 87 - 91
2021-02-09 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish L 89 - 93
2021-02-13 @ NC State Wolfpack W 69 - 53
2021-02-17 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons W 84 - 60
2021-02-20 vs Virginia Cavaliers W 66 - 65
2021-02-22 vs Syracuse Orange W 85 - 71
2021-02-27 vs Louisville Cardinals L 73 - 80
2021-03-02 @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets L 77 - 81
2021-03-06 @ North Carolina Tar Heels L 73 - 91
2021-03-09 vs Boston College Eagles W 86 - 51
2021-03-10 @ Louisville Cardinals W 70 - 56
2021-03-11 @ Florida State Seminoles - Preview

2021 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Matthew Hurt Matthew Hurt F 23 32.7 18.5 6.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.1 3.7 22.8 79 23 3.4 4.2 54.8 51.3 65.0 2.26 229.5 66.7
DJ Steward DJ Steward - 23 31.2 13.1 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.6 1.9 4.0 15.2 82 23 3.6 4.6 44.6 31.9 76.2 2.24 149.2 52.7
Jalen Johnson Jalen Johnson - 12 21.9 11.5 6.6 2.4 1.2 1.2 2.5 1.7 18.8 3 12 0.2 0.5 80.0 50.0 75.0 0.58 293.4 82.5
Wendell Moore Jr. Wendell Moore Jr. - 23 27.3 9.1 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.2 2.1 2.1 13.6 37 23 1.6 2.3 35.4 30.8 88.9 0.12 201.1 39.6
Jeremy Roach Jeremy Roach G 23 27.0 8.4 2.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 2.0 2.3 9.8 47 23 2.0 3.0 45.3 34.4 71.4 -0.21 163.1 55.7
Mark Williams Mark Williams - 22 15.0 7.1 4.5 0.7 0.6 1.4 0.9 1.3 12.0 15 22 0.7 1.8 65.5 0 54.5 -1.03 230.5 65.5
Jordan Goldwire Jordan Goldwire G 23 28.9 5.9 2.8 4.0 2.3 0.1 1.4 1.8 11.8 53 23 2.3 3.3 40.5 36.8 75.0 1.49 154.3 48.8
Patrick Tape Patrick Tape F 1 8.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 16 9 1.8 14.5 100.0 0 0 -1.18 100.0 100.0
Jaemyn Brakefield Jaemyn Brakefield F 22 12.5 3.5 2.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 6.0 -2 21 -0.1 -0.3 38.9 14.3 33.3 -2.11 201.9 41.7
Joey Baker Joey Baker - 22 11.3 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 3.6 55 22 2.5 8.9 33.3 22.2 0 3.51 210.0 40.0
Henry Coleman Iii Henry Coleman Iii F 5 5.6 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.4 2.6 14 18 0.8 6.0 57.1 0.0 0.0 0.07 50.8 57.1
Keenan Worthington Keenan Worthington F 2 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 - - - - 50.0 0 50.0 -1.5 52.1 50.0
Mike Buckmire Mike Buckmire G 4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - - 0.0 0 0 -2.11 100.0 0.0
Michael Savarino Michael Savarino G 2 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 - - - - 0 0 50.0 -1.49 56.8 0
J. Grandison J. Grandison - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG