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Pittsburgh Panthers 10-12
@
2020-12-29
Duke Blue Devils 13-11

Model Predictions

Model Pittsburgh Panthers Duke Blue Devils Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 15.8% (#122) 84.2% (#41) Duke Bl... -10.6 65-76
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 31.6% (#178) 68.4% (#115) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 21.6% (#88) 78.4% (#42) Duke Bl... -7.1 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 41.5% (#141) 58.5% (#82) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 21.5% (#85) 78.5% (#41) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 21.3% (#84) 78.7% (#41) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 33.1% (#91) 66.9% (#44) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Pittsburgh Panthers Duke Blue Devils
Games 20 11
PPG 72.1 74.5
FG% 44.3% 45.5%
3PT% 35.3% 33.2%
FT% 66.5% 67.7%
RPG 37.3 36.9
APG 14.5 16.6
SPG 6.1 8.5
BPG 3.7 4.8
TOPG 12.7 13.5

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Pittsburgh Panthers Duke Blue Devils
Adj. Off Eff 105.1 108.9
Adj. Def Eff 94.9 91.1
Adj. Net Eff 10.2 17.7

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Pittsburgh Panthers Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Au'Diese Toney 14.7 6.1 2.5 1.3 0.1 35.2
Justin Champagnie 17.7 10.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 34.5
Xavier Johnson 14.3 3.5 5.8 1.4 0.2 29.2
Ithiel Horton 9.2 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 26.8
A. Coulibaly 5.1 3.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 22.7

Duke Blue Devils Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Matt Hurt 18.5 6.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 32.7
DJ Steward 13.1 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.6 31.2
J. Goldwire 5.9 2.8 4.0 2.3 0.1 28.9
Wendell Moore Jr. 9.1 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.2 27.3
J. Roach 8.4 2.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 27.0