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Duke Blue Devils 13-11
@
2021-03-11
Florida State Seminoles 18-7

Model Predictions

Model Duke Blue Devils Florida Stat... Spread Projected
Elo
2020-21 season-end ratings
 29.1% (#41) 70.9% (#28) Florida... -5.2 68-73
Bradley-Terry
2020-21 season-end ratings
 26.4% (#115) 73.6% (#32) - -
Margin
2020-21 season-end ratings
 26.2% (#42) 73.8% (#16) Florida... -5.7 -
Pythagorean
2020-21 season-end ratings
 43.5% (#82) 56.5% (#35) - -
Adjusted Efficiency
2020-21 season-end ratings
 30.7% (#41) 69.3% (#16) - -
Log Adjusted
2020-21 season-end ratings
 30.7% (#41) 69.3% (#16) - -
Points Off/Def
2020-21 season-end ratings
 35.3% (#44) 64.7% (#18) - -

2020-21 season-end ratings: Spread: 4.0 points per 100 Elo plus a 3.0-point home edge (2019-20 margin fit); projected score: 2019-20's average total of 141 split by the spread. No neutral-site adjustment.

Team Stats Comparison

Stat Duke Blue Devils Florida Stat...
Games 12 20
PPG 75.3 76.9
FG% 46.2% 46.2%
3PT% 34.1% 37.8%
FT% 66.7% 73.2%
RPG 36.9 37.6
APG 16.7 14.1
SPG 8.3 7.4
BPG 4.8 5.3
TOPG 12.8 14.7

Efficiency Ratings

Metric Duke Blue Devils Florida Stat...
Adj. Off Eff 108.9 111.1
Adj. Def Eff 91.1 88.9
Adj. Net Eff 17.7 22.3

Efficiency = points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent strength

Duke Blue Devils Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
Matt Hurt 18.5 6.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 32.7
DJ Steward 13.1 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.6 31.2
Jordan Goldwire 5.9 2.8 4.0 2.3 0.1 28.9
Wendell Moore Jr. 9.1 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.2 27.3
Jeremy Roach 8.4 2.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 27.0

Florida State Seminoles Top Players

Player PPG RPG APG SPG BPG MPG
MJ Walker 12.3 2.5 2.6 0.9 0.4 29.2
Anthony Polite 10.2 4.5 1.8 1.4 0.5 26.7
RaiQuan Gray 12.0 6.5 2.3 1.3 0.8 26.6
Scottie Barnes 10.4 4.1 4.1 1.5 0.4 24.8
Malik Osborne 5.7 4.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 19.8