🐻⬇️🏀

Bard

Also known as: Bard
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 731 (#574) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 719 (#565) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 724 (#721) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -24.1 (#416) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -25.5 (#649) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.011 (#707) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -16.9 More → 0.062 (#510) NetEff -16.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -50.2 More → 0.003 (#701) AdjNet -50.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -50.4 More → 0.002 (#697) AdjNet -50.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 42.1 | AdjD 71.6 More → 0.064 (#687) AdjO 42.1 | AdjD 71.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 42.5 | AdjD 63.1 More → 0.133 (#693) AdjO 42.5 | AdjD 63.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.062 (#688) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.063 (#693) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 110 | GP 22 More → 630 (#566) RD 110 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Russell Sage - Incomplete score
2025-11-14 vs Alfred - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 @ Alfred St. - Incomplete score
2025-11-17 @ New Haven - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 vs Elms - Incomplete score
2025-11-24 vs MCLA - Incomplete score
2025-12-01 vs Sarah Lawrence - Incomplete score
2025-12-13 vs Rensselaer - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 vs Clarkson - Incomplete score
2026-01-13 vs Mount Holyoke - Incomplete score
2026-01-16 @ Union (NY) - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 @ Ithaca - Incomplete score
2026-01-23 @ Skidmore - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Vassar - Incomplete score
2026-01-30 @ Clarkson - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 @ St. Lawrence - Incomplete score
2026-02-06 vs Vassar - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Skidmore - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Shirley Dong - 17 28.8 8.5 5.2 2.1 1.9 0.2 4.0 9.6 4.1 -71 -3.5 -16.5 34.1 26.5 83.3 1.79 42.5 40.9
Erin Tobes - 17 25.8 7.6 5.6 2.8 2.1 0.3 6.1 7.9 4.4 -155 -7.8 -35.9 29.1 11.1 67.6 -2.23 39.0 29.9
Lexi Miller - 17 33.7 6.8 10.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 3.3 9.2 7.5 -188 -9.4 -32.7 32.1 12.5 41.2 -2.19 33.6 32.4
Morgan Kottka - 13 25.8 6.1 4.5 1.5 0.9 0.3 2.4 8.5 2.5 -50 -3.1 -28.0 27.3 20.7 46.7 1.93 33.9 32.7
Aislynn Dixon - 16 31.9 5.7 2.9 1.9 1.5 0.5 2.4 7.0 3.0 -246 -12.9 -44.8 23.2 22.1 74.1 -7.54 36.7 31.7
Ava Gregory - 17 30.1 5.6 4.6 1.1 1.5 0.2 3.1 7.4 2.5 -116 -6.1 -29.0 26.2 22.2 55.0 -0.41 35.2 33.3
Jessica Martin - 17 24.5 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.0 6.4 1.2 -113 -5.7 -24.2 27.5 25.3 100.0 -2.13 37.6 36.7
Tianna Gonzalez - 9 13.6 3.8 4.2 0.4 0.9 0.1 2.6 4.1 2.8 -27 -2.2 -54.8 37.8 28.6 36.4 -1.57 40.6 40.5
Melina Koulouri - 1 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG