🐻⬇️🏀

Bard

Also known as: Bard
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 904 (#402) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 751 (#555) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 724 (#721) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -24.2 (#378) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -25.5 (#649) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.011 (#707) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -16.9 More → 0.062 (#510) NetEff -16.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -50.2 More → 0.003 (#701) AdjNet -50.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -50.4 More → 0.002 (#697) AdjNet -50.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 42.1 | AdjD 71.6 More → 0.064 (#687) AdjO 42.1 | AdjD 71.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 42.5 | AdjD 63.1 More → 0.133 (#693) AdjO 42.5 | AdjD 63.1
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.062 (#688) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.063 (#693) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 110 | GP 22 More → 626 (#565) RD 110 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Russell Sage L 44 - 61
2025-11-14 vs Alfred L 35 - 58
2025-11-15 @ Alfred St. L 45 - 59
2025-11-17 @ New Haven L 28 - 87
2025-11-19 vs Elms W 58 - 48
2025-11-24 vs MCLA W 88 - 38
2025-12-01 vs Sarah Lawrence L 64 - 73
2025-12-13 vs Rensselaer L 30 - 52
2026-01-10 vs Clarkson L 45 - 54
2026-01-13 vs Mount Holyoke L 51 - 60
2026-01-16 @ Union (NY) L 50 - 81
2026-01-17 @ Ithaca L 45 - 71
2026-01-23 @ Skidmore L 29 - 54
2026-01-24 @ Vassar L 34 - 51
2026-01-30 @ Clarkson L 42 - 53
2026-01-31 @ St. Lawrence L 39 - 71
2026-02-06 vs Vassar L 41 - 63
2026-02-07 vs Skidmore L 31 - 67

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Shirley Dong - 18 28.8 8.6 4.9 2.1 1.9 0.2 3.9 9.8 3.9 -71 -3.5 -16.5 33.9 26.7 83.3 -0.19 42.2 40.7
Erin Tobes - 18 25.3 7.5 5.4 2.6 1.9 0.3 5.9 8.1 3.7 -155 -7.8 -35.9 28.3 14.3 67.6 -3.31 38.0 29.3
Lexi Miller - 18 33.1 6.5 10.1 1.1 1.2 0.4 3.4 8.8 7.0 -188 -9.4 -32.7 32.1 12.5 38.9 -4.0 33.5 32.4
Morgan Kottka - 14 26.3 6.4 4.3 1.5 0.9 0.3 2.4 8.4 2.6 -50 -3.1 -28.0 29.1 24.2 46.7 1.83 36.4 35.5
Aislynn Dixon - 17 31.5 5.4 2.8 1.8 1.5 0.5 2.5 7.0 2.4 -246 -12.9 -44.8 21.8 20.7 74.1 -6.12 34.8 29.8
Ava Gregory - 18 30.3 5.3 4.8 1.1 1.4 0.2 3.1 7.2 2.4 -116 -6.1 -29.0 25.4 21.4 55.0 -0.29 34.2 32.3
Jessica Martin - 18 24.0 4.6 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.9 6.2 1.1 -113 -5.7 -24.2 26.8 24.7 100.0 -0.86 36.6 35.7
Tianna Gonzalez - 10 14.3 3.4 4.5 0.5 0.8 0.1 2.7 4.1 2.5 -27 -2.2 -54.8 34.1 22.2 36.4 -0.06 37.1 36.6
Melina Koulouri - 1 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG