🐻⬇️🏀

Russell Sage

Also known as: Russell Sage
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1013 (#222) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1067 (#207) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1056 (#167) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -8.6 (#282) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -10.3 (#499) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.247 (#562) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +4.6 More → 0.663 (#295) NetEff +4.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -22.5 More → 0.069 (#572) AdjNet -22.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -23.1 More → 0.062 (#570) AdjNet -23.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 54.0 | AdjD 68.3 More → 0.215 (#562) AdjO 54.0 | AdjD 68.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 61.4 More → 0.411 (#525) AdjO 57.5 | AdjD 61.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.414 (#444) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.421 (#443) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 96 | GP 22 More → 1101 (#160) RD 96 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs Bard W 61 - 44
2025-11-12 @ Union (NY) L 61 - 64
2025-11-15 vs SUNY Morrisville W 80 - 70
2025-11-18 @ Saint Joseph (CT) W 67 - 56
2025-11-22 vs SUNY Canton L 51 - 72
2025-11-29 vs Hartford W 64 - 50
2025-12-01 vs SUNY Cobleskill W 71 - 68
2026-01-10 @ Elmira L 54 - 74
2026-01-13 vs SUNY Poly W 59 - 55
2026-01-16 vs Houghton W 73 - 58
2026-01-17 vs Alfred W 64 - 49
2026-01-23 vs Nazareth L 45 - 80
2026-01-24 vs St. John Fisher W 52 - 44
2026-01-27 @ Hartwick W 68 - 63
2026-01-30 @ SUNY Brockport L 66 - 71
2026-01-31 @ SUNY Geneseo W 65 - 64
2026-02-06 vs Elmira L 49 - 71
2026-02-07 vs Keuka W 50 - 41

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Layla Acosta - 17 30.1 16.1 4.4 2.4 1.6 0.1 3.8 14.9 5.9 61 3.0 14.3 39.8 33.7 65.6 3.99 48.6 45.9
Kallie Hopkins - 18 30.5 10.6 8.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 2.3 9.8 10.2 40 1.9 6.6 40.9 20.7 69.5 1.48 47.3 42.6
Kyla Smith - 18 32.5 9.0 5.1 2.2 0.8 0.3 2.7 9.7 5.1 26 1.2 3.9 30.5 32.3 73.5 2.24 42.9 39.4
Jaileen Soto - 18 27.1 8.0 4.6 2.2 1.1 0.0 3.2 7.8 4.8 29 1.4 6.1 31.2 27.3 71.2 1.65 42.3 34.4
Aniyah Kelley - 16 19.0 6.4 5.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.2 6.0 5.6 -28 -1.5 -8.1 40.6 38.9 77.3 -1.02 48.3 44.3
Danielle Waldron - 18 12.0 3.7 2.8 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.7 5.1 2.6 -15 -0.7 -6.3 27.5 24.3 50.0 -1.21 34.2 32.4
Emily Zeh - 17 17.2 3.5 3.5 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.9 25 1.2 8.6 50.0 0.0 73.1 -2.62 57.3 50.0
Miranda Price - 13 11.9 3.1 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.7 -41 -2.6 -22.0 35.9 23.8 77.8 -2.8 46.6 42.3
Madison Huneau - 15 27.8 2.6 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.3 1.7 3.3 4.3 -2 -0.1 -0.4 18.0 11.1 51.3 -3.49 29.0 19.0
Isabella Clute - 11 8.1 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.5 1.0 -37 -3.4 -35.4 50.0 75.0 100.0 -3.75 62.2 59.4
Olivia Shieve - 2 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - 100.0 0 0 - 100.0 100.0
Samantha Henderson - 6 2.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 -0.7 -4 -0.8 -26.7 0.0 0 0 0.16 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG