🐻⬇️🏀

MCLA

Also known as: MCLA
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 864 (#447) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 592 (#601) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 708 (#726) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -63.8 (#431) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -56.2 (#721) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.001 (#740) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -51.4 More → 0.000 (#593) NetEff -51.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -79.5 More → 0.000 (#749) AdjNet -79.5
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -81.4 More → 0.000 (#749) AdjNet -81.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 28.1 | AdjD 73.9 More → 0.015 (#746) AdjO 28.1 | AdjD 73.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 32.4 | AdjD 75.3 More → 0.020 (#727) AdjO 32.4 | AdjD 75.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.004 (#728) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.005 (#728) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 128 | GP 15 More → 495 (#583) RD 128 | GP 15

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-15 @ VTSU Lyndon L 44 - 105
2025-11-24 @ Bard L 38 - 88
2025-12-01 vs SUNY Delhi L 45 - 58
2025-12-03 @ Dean L 43 - 75
2025-12-09 vs VTSU-Johnson L 39 - 44
2025-12-13 @ Wentworth L 31 - 59
2026-01-10 @ Anna Maria L 0 - 0
2026-01-14 vs Westfield St. L 22 - 90
2026-01-17 @ Bridgewater St. L 25 - 74
2026-01-21 vs Framingham St. L 24 - 89
2026-01-24 vs Fitchburg St. L 47 - 50
2026-01-28 @ Salem St. L 43 - 94
2026-01-31 vs Worcester St. L 43 - 73
2026-02-04 vs Anna Maria L 28 - 72
2026-02-07 @ Westfield St. L 50 - 79

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Hailey Peabody - 13 30.3 12.2 8.2 0.8 2.4 1.1 3.7 14.4 6.6 -111 -10.1 -33.0 33.2 22.2 60.5 -4.47 39.0 36.4
Abigail Scialabba - 14 35.9 8.4 5.5 1.9 1.5 0.3 5.0 15.6 -2.9 -193 -16.1 -53.1 19.7 15.0 69.6 -2.54 25.9 23.4
Dakota Quick - 14 26.9 8.1 5.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 3.1 8.6 3.6 -147 -13.4 -41.3 32.5 33.8 75.0 -3.94 44.5 42.1
Ashlyn Bill - 14 31.4 3.6 6.1 1.0 0.6 1.1 3.5 6.9 2.1 -190 -15.8 -68.4 23.7 0.0 31.2 -2.69 24.5 23.7
Amare Williams - 14 29.3 3.5 6.1 1.8 0.6 0.2 5.2 6.1 0.9 -150 -12.5 -53.9 18.6 12.2 44.4 -2.21 25.0 21.5
Amaya Todd - 9 19.5 1.7 2.2 0.0 0.9 0.2 1.7 2.6 0.8 -26 -3.2 -25.4 30.4 10.0 0 -4.23 32.6 32.6
Lauren Kimball - 14 14.3 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 1.9 -0.9 -112 -10.2 -47.8 23.1 0.0 0.0 -1.09 22.0 23.1
Khadija Faye - 14 11.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.8 -1.6 -64 -5.8 -57.7 18.2 0 0 -2.63 18.2 18.2
Jaydence Meribela - 13 11.0 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.5 0.9 -0.5 -52 -4.7 -50.9 0.0 0.0 33.3 -2.51 3.8 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG