🐻⬇️🏀

Elms

Also known as: Elms
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 979 (#282) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 746 (#558) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 866 (#642) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -29.1 (#391) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -23.1 (#633) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.173 (#599) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -8.3 More → 0.208 (#449) NetEff -8.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -35.7 More → 0.015 (#651) AdjNet -35.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -36.8 More → 0.013 (#652) AdjNet -36.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.9 | AdjD 75.8 More → 0.111 (#647) AdjO 52.9 | AdjD 75.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 53.0 | AdjD 67.3 More → 0.214 (#656) AdjO 53.0 | AdjD 67.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.105 (#660) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.115 (#660) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 | GP 21 More → 780 (#503) RD 104 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Thomas (ME) L 53 - 65
2025-11-09 @ Plymouth St. L 53 - 70
2025-11-12 @ Salem St. L 64 - 70
2025-11-15 vs Fitchburg St. W 70 - 54
2025-11-19 @ Bard L 48 - 58
2025-11-22 vs Gordon W 71 - 60
2025-11-25 vs Westfield St. L 60 - 70
2025-12-09 vs Mount Holyoke L 46 - 55
2025-12-10 @ Wellesley L 51 - 68
2025-12-30 vs Wentworth W 50 - 37
2026-01-10 vs Saint Joseph (CT) L 53 - 62
2026-01-14 vs Regis (MA) L 55 - 64
2026-01-17 @ Mitchell W 71 - 53
2026-01-20 @ Albertus Magnus L 52 - 65
2026-01-24 @ Colby-Sawyer W 83 - 77
2026-01-28 vs St. Joseph's (ME) L 65 - 77
2026-02-03 @ New England Col. L 66 - 81
2026-02-07 vs Emmanuel (MA) L 30 - 58

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Mary Turco - 18 30.9 14.2 11.8 2.1 1.1 1.2 3.8 11.5 15.1 -75 -3.9 -19.6 48.3 0.0 63.2 -1.37 52.0 48.3
Talia Uribe - 18 26.0 8.2 5.0 1.4 1.5 0.1 3.1 7.4 5.7 -80 -4.2 -25.6 38.1 0.0 56.1 0.2 43.5 38.1
Tatiana Pereira - 18 20.3 7.2 4.6 1.8 1.0 0.3 3.1 8.2 3.6 -31 -1.6 -15.5 36.7 22.7 63.0 3.39 40.9 38.4
Sanaii Diaz - 18 26.8 5.4 3.3 3.2 2.8 0.0 4.7 7.2 2.9 -72 -3.8 -22.9 27.1 8.1 58.1 -0.55 33.1 28.3
Gabby Wasiewicz - 17 11.0 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.7 5.1 1.6 -24 -1.3 -15.9 34.9 38.2 0 -2.39 51.7 51.7
Malinna Figueroa - 18 17.5 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 2.3 6.4 -0.6 -18 -0.9 -6.9 24.3 19.7 57.1 0.53 33.0 29.6
Kelly LeBel - 18 13.5 3.9 1.4 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.7 4.4 2.0 -27 -1.4 -14.8 34.2 28.6 20.0 -0.62 43.7 44.3
Piper Graham - 18 19.6 3.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.8 4.3 0.4 -104 -5.5 -36.2 24.4 18.6 87.5 0.65 34.3 31.4
Devynn Watford - 17 6.8 2.4 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.3 2.3 -13 -0.7 -8.7 41.0 27.3 54.5 0.51 46.8 44.9
Sophia Andrade - 16 10.5 1.6 1.8 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.4 1 0.1 1.5 32.3 20.0 33.3 -0.85 37.2 37.1
Angelina Cellucci - 8 3.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.2 15 1.7 184.6 42.9 42.9 0 -0.04 64.3 64.3
Sam Gomes - 8 7.8 1.0 1.9 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.9 -3 -0.3 -30.4 13.3 14.3 50.0 -0.69 22.7 16.7
Stephanie Mildner - 6 2.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 - - - 60.0 0 0 - 60.0 60.0
Zuleily Lopez - 10 4.3 0.9 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 -27 -2.2 -97.2 30.8 0 33.3 0.62 31.4 30.8
Teah McKoy - 13 4.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 -27 -1.9 -56.9 33.3 0 100.0 -0.49 46.5 33.3
Aniah Glover - 17 8.4 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.2 -0.1 -25 -1.4 -37.5 5.0 0.0 0 0.31 5.0 5.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG