Troy
Model Outputs
2012-2013
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ | 861 (#254) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ | 860 (#271) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More โ | 925 (#273) | HCA +102 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More โ | -8.0 (#279) | HCA +3.1 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More โ | -6.2 (#264) | HCA +3.2 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ | 0.299 (#264) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More โ | 0.203 (#271) | AdjNet -11.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More โ | 0.199 (#272) | AdjNet -12.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More โ | 0.338 (#279) | AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 66.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More โ | 0.408 (#256) | AdjO 60.8 | AdjD 64.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More โ | 0.310 (#272) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More โ | 0.323 (#268) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More โ | 885 (#245) | RD 147 | GP 33 |
2013 Schedule & Results
2013 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emil Jones
|
G | 33 | 32.8 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 18.1 | -60 | 25 | -2.4 | -3.2 | 44.7 | 15.4 | 70.0 | 3.06 | 191.4 | 45.9 |
Hunter Williams
|
G | 33 | 34.7 | 10.4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 12.1 | -155 | 25 | -6.2 | -7.8 | 40.0 | 45.9 | 57.1 | -4.97 | 219.0 | 51.3 |
Ray Chambers
|
F | 33 | 23.0 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 13.2 | -91 | 25 | -3.6 | -7.0 | 46.4 | 0 | 72.7 | -1.57 | 411.1 | 46.4 |
Antoine Myers
|
G | 33 | 25.1 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 11.2 | -41 | 25 | -1.6 | -2.8 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 64.3 | -0.11 | 252.3 | 50.0 |
Deonata Jethroe
|
- | 32 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 7.5 | - | - | - | - | 39.6 | 30.8 | 76.9 | - | 175.0 | 47.9 |
Tevin Calhoun
|
F | 33 | 18.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 6.6 | -86 | 25 | -3.4 | -8.6 | 28.6 | 32.4 | 66.7 | -2.7 | 208.9 | 41.7 |
R.J. Scott
|
G | 19 | 19.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6.2 | -55 | 15 | -3.7 | -8.5 | 40.9 | 33.3 | 66.7 | -3.76 | 220.8 | 52.3 |
Westley Hinton
|
F | 27 | 13.9 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 7.2 | 1 | 20 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 36.8 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0.02 | 304.3 | 47.4 |
Jeff Mullahey
|
G | 32 | 15.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 4.1 | -33 | 24 | -1.4 | -4.0 | 38.9 | 35.7 | 50.0 | 0.31 | 259.5 | 52.8 |
Justin Wright
|
G | 5 | 12.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3.6 | - | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.39 | 137.9 | 20.0 |
Josh Warren
|
C | 33 | 13.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 5.8 | -49 | 25 | -2.0 | -6.5 | 44.4 | 0 | 66.7 | -2.41 | 203.5 | 44.4 |
Breon Dixon
|
- | 7 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 33.3 |
Sidki Muwallif
|
- | 5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG