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Toronto Raptors

Also known as: Toronto Raptors
Program History

2019 Team Stats (35 games)

115.7
PPG
108.5
Opp
+7.2
Margin
47.7%
FG%
39.5%
3P%
81.0%
FT%
44.7
RPG
27.4
APG
13.2
TO
102.6
Est. poss./game
111.3
Adj PPG
105.0
Adj Opp PPG
#3
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2018-2019
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1406 (#1) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1170 (#2) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +47 elo More โ†’ 1160 (#1) HCA +47 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More โ†’ +6.5 (#3) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More โ†’ +10.4 (#1) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.651 (#2) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +8.0 More โ†’ 0.701 (#3) NetEff +8.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.8 More โ†’ 0.662 (#2) AdjNet +5.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +5.8 More โ†’ 0.662 (#2) AdjNet +5.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 111.3 | AdjD 105.0 More โ†’ 0.641 (#3) AdjO 111.3 | AdjD 105.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 110.0 | AdjD 100.8 More โ†’ 0.698 (#1) AdjO 110.0 | AdjD 100.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.756 (#1) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.766 (#1) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 63 | GP 106 More โ†’ 1196 (#1) RD 63 | GP 106

2019 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2019-01-13 @ Washington Wizards - Incomplete score
2019-01-16 @ Boston Celtics L 108 - 117
2019-01-17 vs Phoenix Suns W 111 - 109
2019-01-19 vs Memphis Grizzlies W 119 - 90
2019-01-22 vs Sacramento Kings W 120 - 105
2019-01-23 @ Indiana Pacers L 106 - 110
2019-01-25 @ Houston Rockets L 119 - 121
2019-01-27 @ Dallas Mavericks W 123 - 120
2019-01-31 vs Milwaukee Bucks L 92 - 105
2019-02-03 vs LA Clippers W 121 - 103
2019-02-05 @ Philadelphia 76ers W 119 - 107
2019-02-07 @ Atlanta Hawks W 119 - 101
2019-02-09 @ New York Knicks W 104 - 99
2019-02-11 vs Brooklyn Nets W 127 - 125
2019-02-13 vs Washington Wizards W 129 - 120
2019-02-22 vs San Antonio Spurs W 120 - 117
2019-02-24 vs Orlando Magic L 98 - 113
2019-02-26 vs Boston Celtics W 118 - 95
2019-03-01 vs Portland Trail Blazers W 119 - 117
2019-03-03 @ Detroit Pistons L 107 - 112
2019-03-08 @ New Orleans Pelicans W 127 - 104
2019-03-10 @ Miami Heat W 125 - 104
2019-03-11 @ Cleveland Cavaliers L 101 - 126
2019-03-17 @ Detroit Pistons L 107 - 110
2019-03-18 vs New York Knicks W 128 - 92
2019-03-20 @ Oklahoma City Thunder W 123 - 114
2019-03-22 vs Oklahoma City Thunder L 109 - 116
2019-03-24 vs Charlotte Hornets L 114 - 115
2019-03-26 vs Chicago Bulls W 112 - 103
2019-03-28 @ New York Knicks W 117 - 92
2019-03-30 @ Chicago Bulls W 124 - 101
2019-04-01 vs Orlando Magic W 121 - 109
2019-04-03 @ Brooklyn Nets W 115 - 105
2019-04-05 @ Charlotte Hornets L 111 - 113
2019-04-07 vs Miami Heat W 117 - 109
2019-04-09 @ Minnesota Timberwolves W 120 - 100

2019 Roster

Counting stats use played regular-season games. PM and RAPM use their separate model samples; PM GP shows that sample's game count.

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kawhi Leonard Kawhi Leonard F 23 32.6 25.3 6.3 3.6 1.6 0.2 1.9 18.1 17.0 - - - - 49.2 35.5 87.2 - 60.5 54.4
Pascal Siakam Pascal Siakam F 34 32.6 19.1 6.8 3.4 0.8 0.6 2.0 13.6 15.1 - - - - 53.8 41.1 80.1 - 62.5 58.8
Kyle Lowry Kyle Lowry G 30 33.8 14.7 5.3 7.7 1.3 0.5 2.8 11.3 15.5 - - - - 40.4 38.1 82.8 - 57.6 52.9
Serge Ibaka Serge Ibaka F 32 25.5 14.1 9.0 1.2 0.2 1.3 1.1 11.3 13.3 - - - - 52.6 26.7 71.2 - 56.9 54.8
Fred VanVleet Fred VanVleet G 25 28.6 11.7 2.5 5.2 0.9 0.4 1.3 9.8 9.7 - - - - 42.0 39.7 89.1 - 55.2 51.4
Danny Green Danny Green G 35 25.5 11.2 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 7.7 9.6 - - - - 50.9 52.1 76.2 - 69.8 69.2
Norman Powell Norman Powell G 35 19.4 9.3 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 1.3 7.0 5.8 - - - - 49.2 43.7 83.3 - 61.3 58.4
CJ Miles CJ Miles - 7 13.2 8.9 1.7 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.4 5.7 6.4 - - - - 50.0 48.1 81.8 - 69.1 66.2
Marc Gasol Marc Gasol C 24 25.2 8.9 6.8 4.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 7.2 13.1 - - - - 45.9 44.7 74.5 - 55.5 52.0
Delon Wright Delon Wright - 9 17.7 7.4 2.2 2.4 1.2 0.3 1.0 5.8 6.9 - - - - 42.3 27.3 83.3 - 53.5 45.2
Jeremy Lin G 21 19.1 7.1 2.4 2.2 0.4 0.2 1.0 6.7 4.7 - - - - 37.6 20.4 81.0 - 47.0 41.1
Jodie Meeks - 8 13.0 6.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.9 4.0 - - - - 53.8 44.4 100.0 - 64.7 64.1
OG Anunoby OG Anunoby F 26 19.2 6.3 2.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 5.1 5.0 - - - - 47.0 31.2 84.0 - 57.7 54.5
Greg Monroe Greg Monroe - 10 10.6 4.2 3.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 3.8 4.3 - - - - 44.7 0 44.4 - 45.7 44.7
Chris Boucher Chris Boucher - 15 6.5 3.4 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 2.9 3.5 - - - - 45.5 21.1 100.0 - 54.2 50.0
Malcolm Miller - 9 6.1 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 1.6 - - - - 42.9 50.0 75.0 - 63.7 61.9
Patrick McCaw Patrick McCaw F 24 12.8 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.6 - - - - 44.0 27.3 90.9 - 54.7 50.0
Jordan Loyd - 8 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.4 - - - - 35.7 40.0 71.4 - 49.8 42.9
Eric Moreland - 3 11.0 1.7 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 2.0 4.3 - - - - 33.3 100.0 0 - 41.7 41.7
Malachi Richardson - 2 3.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 - - - - 50.0 50.0 0 - 75.0 75.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2018-2019 Shot Zones

3191 located field-goal attempts in 36 games (NBA Stats). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Siakam22% Siakam27% Ibaka26% Ibaka29% Leonard41% Siakam24% Green37% Lowry28% Lowry24% Green26%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Siakam16% Siakam27% Lowry19% Ibaka27% Leonard32% Siakam24% Green28% Lowry21% Lowry27% Lowry20%
Misses: who misses most here

Pascal SiakamKawhi LeonardSerge IbakaDanny GreenKyle Lowry

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 647-1032 62.7 1294 Pascal Siakam 22% (290 pts) Serge Ibaka 14% (178 pts) Pascal Siakam 16% (63 misses) Kawhi Leonard 12% (47 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 204-464 44.0 408 Pascal Siakam 27% (112 pts) Serge Ibaka 22% (88 pts) Pascal Siakam 27% (69 misses) Serge Ibaka 16% (42 misses)
Mid-range left 70-167 41.9 140 Serge Ibaka 26% (36 pts) Kawhi Leonard 19% (26 pts) Kyle Lowry 19% (18 misses) Serge Ibaka 19% (18 misses)
Mid-range center 41-89 46.1 82 Serge Ibaka 29% (24 pts) Kawhi Leonard 17% (14 pts) Serge Ibaka 27% (13 misses) Kawhi Leonard 21% (10 misses)
Mid-range right 71-198 35.9 142 Kawhi Leonard 41% (58 pts) Serge Ibaka 18% (26 pts) Kawhi Leonard 32% (41 misses) Serge Ibaka 19% (24 misses)
Left corner 3 90-193 46.6 270 Pascal Siakam 24% (66 pts) Danny Green 23% (63 pts) Pascal Siakam 24% (25 misses) Danny Green 15% (15 misses)
Right corner 3 81-179 45.3 243 Danny Green 37% (90 pts) Pascal Siakam 20% (48 pts) Danny Green 28% (27 misses) Pascal Siakam 22% (22 misses)
Above-break 3 left 109-299 36.5 327 Kyle Lowry 28% (90 pts) Danny Green 14% (45 pts) Kyle Lowry 21% (39 misses) Fred VanVleet 12% (23 misses)
Above-break 3 center 90-247 36.4 270 Kyle Lowry 24% (66 pts) Norman Powell 16% (42 pts) Kyle Lowry 27% (43 misses) Fred VanVleet 12% (19 misses)
Above-break 3 right 121-323 37.5 363 Danny Green 26% (93 pts) Kyle Lowry 19% (69 pts) Kyle Lowry 20% (41 misses) Kawhi Leonard 17% (34 misses)