Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.1% | 94.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.7% | 85.3% | +9.7 | ✓ (1.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +8 (117-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic * | 38 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Justise Winslow * | 34 | 6-18 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Dion Waiters * | 32 | 6-16 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | - |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 16 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Dwyane Wade | 32 | 7-14 | 4-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 14 | - |
| James Johnson | 30 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Rodney McGruder | 22 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside | 21 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 42 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 38 | 7-19 | 3-8 | 5-7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Pascal Siakam * | 36 | 8-10 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 21 | - |
| Danny Green * | 35 | 7-13 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 14 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 33 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 21 | - |
| Fred VanVleet | 22 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Norman Powell | 21 | 7-7 | 4-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 21 | - |
| Serge Ibaka | 19 | 6-14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| OG Anunoby | 16 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter