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Arkansas State

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History
Coach: Mike Balado

2020 Team Stats (3 games)

74.0
PPG
75.3
Opp
-1.3
Margin
44.3%
FG%
40.0%
3P%
68.9%
FT%
34.3
RPG
11.3
APG
12.0
TO
-
Est. poss./game
68.4
Adj PPG
70.8
Adj Opp PPG
#205
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2019-2020
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 832 (#273) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 965 (#203) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +96 elo More → 922 (#267) HCA +96 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +3.0 More → -2.5 (#202) HCA +3.0
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.1 More → -3.0 (#215) HCA +3.1
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.412 (#227) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -4.6 More → 0.372 (#208) AdjNet -4.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.6 More → 0.369 (#208) AdjNet -4.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.4 | AdjD 70.8 More → 0.445 (#205) AdjO 68.4 | AdjD 70.8
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 70.8 More → 0.446 (#230) AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 70.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.388 (#234) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.388 (#239) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 89 | GP 30 More → 899 (#246) RD 89 | GP 30

2020 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2019-11-06 vs Arkansas Monticello Boll Weevils W 65 - 49
2019-11-08 @ Ole Miss Rebels L 43 - 71
2019-11-14 vs VMI Keydets W 71 - 56
2019-11-15 vs UC Davis Aggies W 80 - 67
2019-11-17 vs Idaho Vandals W 82 - 68
2019-11-20 @ Colorado State Rams W 80 - 78
2019-11-30 vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks L 57 - 76
2019-12-03 vs Omaha Mavericks W 78 - 73
2019-12-07 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane W 66 - 63
2019-12-11 @ Missouri State Bears L 53 - 75
2019-12-18 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 79 - 67
2019-12-21 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 62 - 59
2019-12-28 vs Freed Hardeman Lions W 84 - 73
2020-01-02 vs UT Arlington Mavericks L 52 - 73
2020-01-04 vs Texas State Bobcats L 67 - 70
2020-01-06 vs Georgia State Panthers W 90 - 87
2020-01-09 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 59 - 75
2020-01-11 vs Troy Trojans W 76 - 68
2020-01-16 @ App State Mountaineers L 80 - 83
2020-01-18 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 80 - 75
2020-01-23 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 75 - 71
2020-01-25 @ Troy Trojans W 78 - 62
2020-01-30 vs App State Mountaineers L 64 - 71
2020-02-01 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 77 - 83
2020-02-08 @ Little Rock Trojans L 87 - 90
2020-02-13 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 67 - 77
2020-02-15 @ Texas State Bobcats L 64 - 69
2020-02-19 vs UL Monroe Warhawks L 52 - 66
2020-02-22 vs Little Rock Trojans L 78 - 81
2020-02-26 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 74 - 77
2020-03-03 @ Georgia Southern Eagles W 76 - 75
2020-03-07 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns L 66 - 73

2020 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Marquis Eaton Marquis Eaton G 12 34.2 15.6 3.0 2.9 1.6 0.1 2.2 4.6 16.3 -41 28 -1.5 -3.6 34.5 33.3 73.1 -0.83 140.7 39.1
Jerry Johnson Jerry Johnson G 3 29.7 12.3 1.0 3.0 1.7 0.0 0.7 10.3 7.0 - - - - 38.7 40.0 100.0 - 54.3 48.4
Caleb Fields Caleb Fields G 12 32.9 12.2 3.6 3.5 1.1 0.0 1.4 4.2 14.8 -20 27 -0.7 -1.9 42.0 38.9 69.2 2.01 118.8 49.0
Canberk Kus Canberk Kus G 12 25.2 10.8 6.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 1.6 4.1 15.0 -62 27 -2.3 -6.5 51.0 35.3 0.0 -2.57 131.5 57.1
Melo Eggleston Melo Eggleston G 6 22.7 9.2 5.5 1.2 0.3 0.5 1.8 3.8 11.0 - - - - 43.5 28.6 53.8 - 95.8 47.8
J.J. Matthews J.J. Matthews F 12 22.5 8.8 5.5 1.6 0.5 0.4 1.4 2.2 13.2 -42 28 -1.5 -4.8 48.1 0.0 60.0 -2.52 157.7 48.1
Malik Brevard Malik Brevard F 12 22.2 6.8 7.0 1.1 1.6 0.5 2.0 1.3 13.7 4 28 0.1 0.5 62.5 0 60.0 1.59 201.0 62.5
Christian Willis Christian Willis G 12 20.2 5.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.8 6.1 -73 28 -2.6 -9.6 59.1 50.0 62.5 -4.74 127.4 75.0
Antwon Jackson Antwon Jackson F 12 12.2 3.2 2.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.1 5.8 -41 25 -1.6 -12.5 53.8 0 11.1 -2.82 115.0 53.8
Kobe Wilson Kobe Wilson G 8 6.6 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 -3 11 -0.3 -2.1 25.0 0.0 0 -1.08 56.2 25.0
Jake Scoggins Jake Scoggins F 2 6.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 2.0 -0.5 - - - - 25.0 0 0.0 -2.01 22.5 25.0
M. Farrington M. Farrington - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG