Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.2% | 57.8% | +1.0 | ✓ (12.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.0% | 69.0% | +4.4 | ✓ (8.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +13 (80-67). Ratings: 2019-20 season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mooney * | 32 | 6-15 | 4-11 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 8 | - |
| Ezra Manjon * | 31 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Caleb Fuller * | 25 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Elijah Pepper * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Matt Neufeld * | 23 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Stefan Gonzalez | 25 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Kennedy Koehler | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Rogers Printup | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ade Adebayo | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Oliver Gehrke | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Brevard * | 36 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Marquis Eaton * | 30 | 3-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Christian Willis * | 26 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Canberk Kus * | 25 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 17 | - |
| J.J. Matthews * | 19 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Caleb Fields | 30 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Antwon Jackson | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Jerry Johnson Jr. | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kobe Wilson | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jake Scoggins | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter