Model Predictions
| Model | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 86.5% | 13.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.6% | 20.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 69.6% | 30.4% | -4.6 | ✓ (14.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 80.4% | 19.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 80.4% | 19.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -19 (57-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevon Harris * | 34 | 7-16 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 9 | - |
| Gavin Kensmil * | 32 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 27 | - |
| Roti Ware * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Nathan Bain * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | - |
| John Comeaux * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| David Kachelries | 19 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Cameron Johnson | 16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Oddyst Walker | 16 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Calvin Solomon | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Sama'zha Hart | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Fields * | 38 | 4-13 | 0-2 | 10-14 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Marquis Eaton * | 30 | 0-9 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | - |
| Canberk Kus * | 28 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 3-7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | - |
| J.J. Matthews * | 23 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Christian Willis * | 14 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Malik Brevard | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Antwon Jackson | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Kobe Wilson | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter