🐻⬇️🏀

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Program History
Coach: Grant McCasland

2017 Team Stats (5 games)

71.8
PPG
64.6
Opp
+7.2
Margin
45.1%
FG%
37.1%
3P%
58.3%
FT%
41.0
RPG
13.8
APG
12.2
TO
-
Est. poss./game
71.0
Adj PPG
68.9
Adj Opp PPG
#128
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2016-2017
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 978 (#183) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1074 (#109) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +89 elo More → 988 (#188) HCA +89 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → +2.0 (#132) HCA +2.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -1.0 (#178) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.618 (#102) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +2.2 More → 0.562 (#138) AdjNet +2.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +2.2 More → 0.563 (#139) AdjNet +2.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 68.9 More → 0.548 (#128) AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 68.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.0 | AdjD 70.0 More → 0.500 (#167) AdjO 70.0 | AdjD 70.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.514 (#161) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.504 (#168) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 137 | GP 31 More → 1016 (#160) RD 137 | GP 31

2017 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2016-11-11 @ North Dakota State Bison L 66 - 76
2016-11-14 vs Central Baptist Mustangs W 100 - 57
2016-11-17 @ Georgetown Hoyas W 78 - 72
2016-11-19 @ Army Black Knights W 60 - 57
2016-11-20 vs Chattanooga Mocs W 73 - 67
2016-11-22 vs SIU Edwardsville Cougars W 75 - 57
2016-11-27 vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks W 97 - 89
2016-11-30 vs Cleveland State Vikings W 78 - 51
2016-12-03 @ TCU Horned Frogs L 54 - 77
2016-12-14 @ UT Martin Skyhawks W 87 - 68
2016-12-16 @ Central Arkansas Bears W 89 - 77
2016-12-21 @ Alabama Crimson Tide L 52 - 67
2016-12-23 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers L 75 - 82
2016-12-31 vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 74 - 71
2017-01-02 vs UL Monroe Warhawks W 76 - 45
2017-01-07 @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers L 65 - 80
2017-01-09 @ App State Mountaineers L 57 - 70
2017-01-14 @ Little Rock Trojans W 77 - 72
2017-01-21 vs Troy Trojans W 82 - 80
2017-01-23 vs South Alabama Jaguars W 74 - 62
2017-01-28 @ UL Monroe Warhawks W 73 - 63
2017-01-30 @ Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns W 88 - 69
2017-02-04 vs App State Mountaineers W 79 - 78
2017-02-06 vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers W 67 - 57
2017-02-11 @ UT Arlington Mavericks L 75 - 81
2017-02-13 @ Texas State Bobcats L 58 - 62
2017-02-17 vs Little Rock Trojans W 67 - 58
2017-02-25 vs Georgia Southern Eagles L 60 - 72
2017-02-27 vs Georgia State Panthers W 78 - 67
2017-03-02 @ Troy Trojans L 72 - 81
2017-03-04 @ South Alabama Jaguars L 70 - 73
2017-03-08 vs UL Monroe Warhawks L 70 - 73

2017 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Devin Carter Devin Carter G 19 32.8 15.6 3.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.1 4.9 14.5 98 26 3.8 4.9 46.2 46.8 73.7 0.69 146.5 61.8
Deven Simms Deven Simms G 18 26.9 13.5 5.6 2.2 1.1 0.4 2.2 4.2 16.4 92 25 3.7 6.0 57.3 33.3 63.0 -0.51 139.8 58.7
Rashad Lindsey Rashad Lindsey G 19 33.4 10.4 2.9 2.7 0.8 0.0 2.2 3.5 11.3 104 26 4.0 4.9 33.3 33.3 85.2 -0.21 127.1 38.6
Donte Thomas Donte Thomas G 19 27.4 8.4 4.7 5.2 1.1 0.2 2.7 3.5 13.5 72 26 2.8 4.2 35.8 18.8 60.0 -0.69 97.1 38.1
Tamas Bruce Tamas Bruce F 19 16.4 7.8 6.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 2.8 11.9 55 26 2.1 5.7 63.0 0 43.5 1.17 116.2 63.0
Jahmiah Simmons Jahmiah Simmons F 13 16.8 5.9 5.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 2.0 9.7 65 22 3.0 6.9 42.3 0.0 64.7 -0.18 115.0 42.3
Connor Kern Connor Kern G 19 16.8 5.2 2.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.9 6.5 82 26 3.2 8.4 38.9 41.9 78.6 0.48 117.4 56.9
C.J. Foster C.J. Foster G 19 20.4 5.0 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 1.1 1.5 6.8 27 26 1.0 2.3 50.0 33.3 42.9 0.16 139.1 55.4
Salif Boudie Salif Boudie F 13 11.8 2.6 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 3.9 40 17 2.4 11.2 57.1 0 66.7 -0.08 176.3 57.1
Nelson Nweke Nelson Nweke C 12 8.8 2.2 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 3.6 17 15 1.1 6.8 66.7 0 60.0 0.75 250.0 66.7
Christian Willis Christian Willis G 6 5.8 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.3 1.3 -12 8 -1.5 -25.8 50.0 100.0 0 -3.84 275.0 75.0
Andrew Riley Andrew Riley G 5 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 5 6 0.8 17.6 100.0 0 0 0.09 450.0 100.0
Christian Davis Christian Davis F 5 3.6 1.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 -5 5 -1.0 -24.6 0 0 0 -1.61 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG