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UMBC

Season: 2027 preview 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: UMBC Retrievers
Program History
Coach: Aki Thomas

Model Outputs

2015-2016
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 661 (#337) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 739 (#335) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +98 elo More → 879 (#326) HCA +98 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → -13.4 (#328) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -14.4 (#336) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.217 (#307) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -19.0 More → 0.100 (#329) AdjNet -19.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -19.2 More → 0.098 (#328) AdjNet -19.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 80.6 More → 0.244 (#329) AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 80.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 70.8 | AdjD 80.4 More → 0.294 (#337) AdjO 70.8 | AdjD 80.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.189 (#329) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.197 (#331) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 159 | GP 32 More → 754 (#322) RD 159 | GP 32

2016 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2015-11-13 @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons L 73 - 78
2015-11-16 @ St. John's Red Storm L 53 - 75
2015-11-18 vs Loyola Maryland Greyhounds L 57 - 76
2015-11-21 @ Northern Colorado Bears W 81 - 72
2015-11-22 @ Cal Poly Mustangs L 65 - 78
2015-11-25 vs Navy Midshipmen L 54 - 75
2015-11-28 vs Colgate Raiders L 63 - 71
2015-12-02 @ Bowling Green Falcons L 64 - 72
2015-12-05 @ Longwood Lancers W 70 - 59
2015-12-08 @ Duquesne Dukes L 70 - 89
2015-12-12 vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers W 75 - 63
2015-12-19 @ Howard Bison L 93 - 103
2015-12-23 @ Towson Tigers L 65 - 91
2015-12-31 vs Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks W 89 - 75
2016-01-02 @ NJIT Highlanders L 83 - 86
2016-01-06 @ UAlbany Great Danes L 59 - 73
2016-01-09 vs Maine Black Bears W 89 - 76
2016-01-13 @ Stony Brook Seawolves L 74 - 86
2016-01-16 vs UMass Lowell River Hawks L 89 - 95
2016-01-21 vs Hartford Hawks L 87 - 98
2016-01-24 @ Vermont Catamounts L 72 - 79
2016-01-27 @ Binghamton Bearcats L 57 - 66
2016-01-30 vs New Hampshire Wildcats L 81 - 84
2016-02-03 vs UAlbany Great Danes L 73 - 79
2016-02-06 @ Maine Black Bears W 83 - 79
2016-02-11 vs Stony Brook Seawolves L 52 - 75
2016-02-14 @ UMass Lowell River Hawks L 92 - 96
2016-02-17 @ Hartford Hawks L 65 - 88
2016-02-20 vs Vermont Catamounts L 54 - 99
2016-02-24 vs Binghamton Bearcats W 80 - 79
2016-02-27 @ New Hampshire Wildcats L 69 - 78
2016-03-02 @ Stony Brook Seawolves L 76 - 86

2016 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jairus Lyles Jairus Lyles G 17 36.2 23.9 5.7 2.4 2.3 0.0 3.1 4.1 27.1 -166 19 -8.7 -10.4 44.3 45.0 80.6 -4.55 243.3 50.7
Rodney Elliott Rodney Elliott G 23 29.9 12.4 3.1 3.7 0.9 0.1 2.6 2.3 15.3 -195 26 -7.5 -10.7 38.9 13.6 89.8 -4.61 188.6 41.7
Will Darley Will Darley G 25 29.6 11.8 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.3 1.8 1.9 15.6 -114 27 -4.2 -6.1 47.9 23.8 80.0 0.96 281.5 53.1
Joe Sherburne Joe Sherburne F 25 31.2 10.2 4.3 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.2 1.8 14.0 -188 29 -6.5 -8.5 45.7 28.0 83.3 1.02 249.6 53.3
Jourdan Grant Jourdan Grant G 25 24.6 6.6 3.1 2.6 1.4 0.2 2.3 1.0 10.5 -96 29 -3.3 -6.0 50.0 50.0 59.4 0.73 207.1 51.9
Nolan Gerrity Nolan Gerrity F 15 10.5 3.2 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 5.3 -41 18 -2.3 -8.8 40.0 0 66.7 -2.15 314.1 40.0
Ishmail Jabbie Ishmail Jabbie G 15 7.9 3.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 4.1 - - - - 28.6 0.0 85.7 - 238.1 28.6
Ben Grace Ben Grace G 18 8.2 1.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 2.7 -12 19 -0.6 -3.6 50.0 50.0 0 -1.11 425.0 75.0
Jakob Stenhede Jakob Stenhede - 8 6.2 1.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.8 - - - - 0.0 0 0 - 700.0 0.0
Daquon Ervin Daquon Ervin G 10 16.1 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.5 3.2 -34 13 -2.6 -7.7 0.0 0.0 75.0 -0.61 99.8 0.0
Malcolm Brent Malcolm Brent G 15 8.5 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.8 - - - - 57.1 40.0 50.0 - 152.3 71.4
Sam Schwietz Sam Schwietz F 20 8.6 1.4 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 2.7 -20 25 -0.8 -3.6 55.6 0 66.7 -0.29 140.5 55.6
Joel Wincowski Joel Wincowski - 20 9.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9 - - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 283.3 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG