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Penn State

Season: 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
Also known as: Penn State Nittany Lions, Penn State
Program History
Coach: Patrick Chambers

2018 Team Stats (10 games)

73.9
PPG
70.0
Opp
+3.9
Margin
47.3%
FG%
39.4%
3P%
67.0%
FT%
33.6
RPG
12.4
APG
11.8
TO
-
Est. poss./game
76.8
Adj PPG
62.7
Adj Opp PPG
#21
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2017-2018
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1382 (#20) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1209 (#39) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1170 (#8) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.9 More → +15.1 (#22) HCA +2.9
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +17.3 (#7) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.788 (#35) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +22.4 More → 0.930 (#18) AdjNet +22.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +22.7 More → 0.932 (#17) AdjNet +22.7
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 62.7 More → 0.783 (#21) AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 62.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 63.4 More → 0.743 (#8) AdjO 75.0 | AdjD 63.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.859 (#13) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.853 (#11) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 87 | GP 39 More → 1277 (#22) RD 87 | GP 39

2018 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2017-11-10 vs Campbell Fighting Camels W 86 - 75
2017-11-12 vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights W 81 - 57
2017-11-15 vs Montana Grizzlies W 70 - 57
2017-11-17 vs Columbia Lions W 79 - 65
2017-11-20 @ Pittsburgh Panthers W 85 - 54
2017-11-21 @ Texas A&M Aggies L 87 - 98
2017-11-24 vs Oral Roberts Golden Eagles W 86 - 48
2017-11-29 @ NC State Wolfpack L 78 - 85
2017-12-02 @ Iowa Hawkeyes W 77 - 73
2017-12-04 vs Wisconsin Badgers L 63 - 64
2017-12-09 vs George Washington Revolutionaries W 74 - 54
2017-12-17 @ George Mason Patriots W 72 - 54
2017-12-19 vs Binghamton Bearcats W 80 - 65
2017-12-22 vs Rider Broncs L 70 - 71
2017-12-30 vs Coppin State Eagles W 88 - 43
2018-01-02 @ Maryland Terrapins L 69 - 75
2018-01-05 vs Northwestern Wildcats W 78 - 63
2018-01-09 @ Indiana Hoosiers L 70 - 74
2018-01-12 vs Nebraska Cornhuskers W 76 - 74
2018-01-15 vs Minnesota Golden Gophers L 84 - 95
2018-01-20 @ Northwestern Wildcats L 61 - 70
2018-01-25 @ Ohio State Buckeyes W 82 - 79
2018-01-27 vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights W 60 - 43
2018-01-31 @ Michigan State Spartans L 68 - 76
2018-02-03 vs Iowa Hawkeyes W 82 - 58
2018-02-07 vs Maryland Terrapins W 74 - 70
2018-02-11 @ Illinois Fighting Illini W 74 - 52
2018-02-15 vs Ohio State Buckeyes W 79 - 56
2018-02-18 @ Purdue Boilermakers L 73 - 76
2018-02-21 vs Michigan Wolverines L 63 - 72
2018-02-25 @ Nebraska Cornhuskers L 64 - 76
2018-03-01 vs Northwestern Wildcats W 65 - 57
2018-03-02 @ Ohio State Buckeyes W 69 - 68
2018-03-03 @ Purdue Boilermakers L 70 - 78
2018-03-14 vs Temple Owls W 63 - 57
2018-03-17 @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 73 - 63
2018-03-20 @ Marquette Golden Eagles W 85 - 80
2018-03-27 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs W 75 - 60
2018-03-29 @ Utah Utes W 82 - 66

2018 Roster

Minutes by Position

Each player's share of the team's minutes per game (season minutes over the roster's), placed by position, so every column is one game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tony Carr Tony Carr G 37 35.4 19.6 4.9 5.0 0.8 0.3 2.3 6.7 21.7 - - - - 41.5 47.4 73.6 - 129.6 50.8
Lamar Stevens Lamar Stevens - 39 33.1 15.5 5.9 1.9 0.6 1.1 2.2 5.0 17.8 - - - - 45.6 34.3 66.7 - 134.8 48.7
Mike Watkins Mike Watkins F 29 26.3 12.1 8.9 0.7 1.0 2.3 1.7 2.5 20.8 - - - - 65.8 0 60.0 - 193.2 65.8
Shep Garner Shep Garner G 39 32.8 11.4 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 2.8 11.8 - - - - 46.3 45.1 88.9 - 192.4 65.3
Josh Reaves Josh Reaves - 34 30.8 10.6 5.1 3.1 2.2 0.5 1.4 3.3 16.8 - - - - 42.3 28.6 77.8 - 146.1 47.7
Nazeer Bostick Nazeer Bostick G 35 17.2 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.6 5.8 - - - - 36.4 9.1 71.4 - 128.4 37.3
Julian Moore Julian Moore F 38 12.0 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.6 4.4 - - - - 54.2 0 40.0 - 149.6 54.2
Jamari Wheeler Jamari Wheeler G 39 14.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 5.1 - - - - 44.0 20.0 66.7 - 141.1 46.0
John Harrar John Harrar F 27 7.2 1.6 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 3.3 - - - - 58.3 0 0 - 175.0 58.3
Satchel Pierce Satchel Pierce F 5 5.2 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 - - - - 40.0 0 0 - 40.0 40.0
Deividas Zemgulis Deividas Zemgulis F 23 5.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 - - - - 42.9 33.3 0 - 128.6 57.1
Trent Buttrick Trent Buttrick F 10 3.6 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.6 - - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 83.3 0.0
Grant Hazle Grant Hazle F 3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Taylor Nussbaum Taylor Nussbaum G 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG