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North Carolina

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: North Carolina Tar Heels
Program History
Coach: Roy Williams

2021 Team Stats (9 games)

71.2
PPG
67.3
Opp
+6.9
Margin
40.0%
FG%
26.3%
3P%
71.2%
FT%
43.2
RPG
11.6
APG
13.7
TO
86.6
Pace

Model Outputs

2020-2021
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1421 (#41) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1484 (#20) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +38.8 (#21) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.709 (#14) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -5.7 More → 0.336 (#44) NetEff -5.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +6.7 More → 0.684 (#37) AdjNet +6.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +6.9 More → 0.690 (#36) AdjNet +6.9

2021 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2020-11-25 vs Charleston Cougars W 79 - 60
2020-11-30 @ UNLV Rebels W 78 - 51
2020-12-12 vs North Carolina Central Eagles W 73 - 67
2020-12-22 @ NC State Wolfpack L 76 - 79
2021-01-09 vs Clemson Tigers - Preview
2021-02-13 @ Virginia Cavaliers L 48 - 60
2021-02-16 vs Virginia Tech Hokies - Preview
2021-02-27 vs Florida State Seminoles W 78 - 70
2021-03-10 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish W 101 - 59
2021-03-11 @ Virginia Tech Hokies W 81 - 73
2021-03-12 @ Florida State Seminoles L 66 - 69
2021-03-19 vs Wisconsin Badgers L 62 - 85

2021 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
A. Bacot A. Bacot - 10 23.1 13.5 8.0 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.3 7.3 15.8 - - - 69.9 0 70.2 - 72.1 69.9
Caleb Love Caleb Love - 10 27.3 10.7 2.7 3.1 1.5 0.5 2.6 11.8 4.1 - - - 28.8 22.2 90.6 - 40.5 33.1
RJ Davis RJ Davis - 10 26.1 10.7 2.9 1.4 0.9 0.1 1.9 9.9 4.2 - - - 37.4 32.6 90.5 - 49.4 44.4
D. Sharpe D. Sharpe - 10 18.1 7.4 6.6 1.8 0.6 1.1 2.1 6.1 9.3 - - - 47.5 0.0 55.2 - 50.2 47.5
W. Kessler W. Kessler - 10 12.9 7.4 5.3 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 4.5 9.8 - - - 64.4 0.0 76.2 - 68.2 64.4
G. Brooks G. Brooks C 9 24.8 7.2 6.9 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 7.7 7.3 - - - 34.8 0 58.6 - 39.8 34.8
Kerwin Walton Kerwin Walton - 10 20.0 5.7 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.6 4.7 4.6 - - - 36.2 35.1 71.4 - 53.6 50.0
L. Black L. Black - 10 25.6 4.5 4.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 1.2 6.1 4.9 - - - 26.2 15.8 71.4 - 33.5 28.7
A. Platek A. Platek - 10 10.7 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.6 3.0 3.5 - - - 46.7 38.9 87.5 - 62.6 58.3
A. Harris A. Harris G 6 12.0 4.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.5 3.5 2.3 - - - 47.6 28.6 28.6 - 49.8 52.4
P. Johnson P. Johnson G 4 4.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 29 2.4 7.5 40.0 25.0 0 0.49 50.0 50.0
W. Miller W. Miller F 5 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 -27 -2.5 -7.2 33.3 0 100.0 -0.65 51.5 33.3
C. Lebo C. Lebo - 4 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
K.J. Smith K.J. Smith G 4 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 -0.2 -14 -1.8 -7.4 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.2 12.9 0.0
S. Manley S. Manley - 2 2.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
R. McAdoo R. McAdoo G 5 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.8 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
D. Farris D. Farris - 4 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG