Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 58.5% | 41.5% | -1.9 | ✗ (4.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 65.4% | 34.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.2% | 23.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.4% | 23.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack +3 (79-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Love | 28 | 3-14 | 0-4 | 5-5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | - |
| K. Walton | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 36 | 5-14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | - |
| L. Black * | 29 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| G. Brooks * | 29 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 3 | - |
| A. Bacot * | 24 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 11 | - |
| D. Sharpe | 14 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | - |
| W. Kessler | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | - |
| A. Platek | 11 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| P. Johnson | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bates * | 36 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - |
| J. Hellems * | 34 | 0-8 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | - |
| B. Beverly * | 29 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 2-6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| D. Daniels * | 28 | 8-13 | 2-3 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | - |
| T. Allen * | 25 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| S. Moore | 15 | 6-11 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 | - |
| D. Seabron | 12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | - |
| C. Hayes | 11 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
| J. Gibson | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter