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Minnesota Lynx

Also known as: Minnesota Lynx
Program History

2014 Team Stats (39 games)

81.8
PPG
78.3
Opp
+3.4
Margin
46.6%
FG%
33.6%
3P%
80.1%
FT%
34.8
RPG
20.1
APG
11.4
TO
78.8
Est. poss./game
80.4
Adj PPG
76.4
Adj Opp PPG
#2
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2014
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More โ†’ 1154 (#2) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More โ†’ 1170 (#2) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +59 elo More โ†’ 1122 (#2) HCA +59 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More โ†’ +4.1 (#2) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More โ†’ +3.7 (#2) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.621 (#2) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +5.2 More โ†’ 0.644 (#2) AdjNet +5.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +5.2 More โ†’ 0.644 (#2) AdjNet +5.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 80.4 | AdjD 76.4 More โ†’ 0.590 (#2) AdjO 80.4 | AdjD 76.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 79.0 | AdjD 75.7 More โ†’ 0.575 (#2) AdjO 79.0 | AdjD 75.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.649 (#2) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.646 (#2) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 88 | GP 39 More โ†’ 1153 (#2) RD 88 | GP 39

2014 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2014-05-16 @ Washington Mystics W 89 - 77
2014-05-18 vs Connecticut Sun W 90 - 87
2014-05-23 @ Tulsa Shock W 94 - 93
2014-05-24 vs New York Liberty W 87 - 82
2014-05-26 @ Chicago Sky W 75 - 72
2014-05-30 vs San Antonio Stars W 88 - 72
2014-06-01 @ San Antonio Stars W 87 - 79
2014-06-06 @ Seattle Storm L 62 - 65
2014-06-08 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 85 - 72
2014-06-13 @ Atlanta Dream L 82 - 85
2014-06-15 vs Phoenix Mercury L 72 - 80
2014-06-17 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 94 - 77
2014-06-18 @ Phoenix Mercury L 79 - 92
2014-06-20 vs Washington Mystics W 75 - 65
2014-06-22 vs Indiana Fever W 83 - 77
2014-06-27 @ Seattle Storm L 71 - 81
2014-06-29 vs Seattle Storm W 74 - 69
2014-07-03 vs San Antonio Stars W 91 - 84
2014-07-06 @ New York Liberty L 80 - 87
2014-07-08 vs Los Angeles Sparks W 83 - 72
2014-07-10 @ Tulsa Shock W 91 - 85
2014-07-13 vs Seattle Storm W 77 - 60
2014-07-16 vs Tulsa Shock W 93 - 82
2014-07-22 vs Atlanta Dream W 112 - 108
2014-07-25 vs San Antonio Stars W 88 - 78
2014-07-27 @ Connecticut Sun W 76 - 65
2014-07-31 vs Phoenix Mercury W 75 - 67
2014-08-02 @ Tulsa Shock W 84 - 75
2014-08-05 @ Indiana Fever W 66 - 64
2014-08-07 vs Chicago Sky W 74 - 64
2014-08-09 @ Phoenix Mercury L 80 - 82
2014-08-12 vs Los Angeles Sparks L 63 - 71
2014-08-15 @ San Antonio Stars L 76 - 92
2014-08-16 vs Tulsa Shock W 80 - 63
2014-08-21 vs San Antonio Stars W 88 - 84
2014-08-23 @ San Antonio Stars W 94 - 89
2014-08-29 @ Phoenix Mercury L 71 - 85
2014-08-31 vs Phoenix Mercury W 82 - 77
2014-09-02 @ Phoenix Mercury L 78 - 96

2014 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
M. Moore M. Moore F 42 33.7 22.5 7.7 3.5 2.2 0.9 2.4 17.0 17.5 - - - - 47.5 33.5 89.8 - 58.5 52.7
S. Augustus S. Augustus G 31 30.7 16.4 3.4 2.4 0.5 0.1 1.5 13.7 7.5 - - - - 49.8 32.0 85.2 - 55.1 51.6
L. Whalen L. Whalen G 41 30.0 14.4 4.3 5.5 0.8 0.0 1.9 11.3 11.8 - - - - 48.4 23.5 76.4 - 54.3 48.8
J. McCarville J. McCarville C 41 26.0 7.5 4.7 2.8 1.0 0.8 1.6 6.6 8.6 - - - - 45.6 33.3 72.9 - 51.0 47.4
R. Brunson R. Brunson F 16 27.9 7.1 7.8 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 7.3 9.5 - - - - 40.2 0.0 76.0 - 44.1 40.2
W. Rolle W. Rolle C 3 16.3 7.0 4.3 0.0 1.0 0.3 3.3 5.0 4.3 - - - - 60.0 0 60.0 - 61.0 60.0
Damiris Dantas Damiris Dantas F 36 21.4 5.8 4.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.9 4.5 7.0 - - - - 50.3 50.0 75.4 - 55.3 50.6
Logan Kosmalski Logan Kosmalski - 29 18.0 5.6 2.0 1.9 0.7 0.3 1.4 5.1 4.1 - - - - 41.5 30.4 75.6 - 48.9 43.9
Marc Thurig Marc Thurig - 42 17.6 5.2 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.0 4.8 3.6 - - - - 39.8 32.1 78.0 - 49.5 46.0
C. Foggie C. Foggie G 3 15.7 4.7 3.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.3 4.3 4.3 - - - - 30.8 25.0 37.5 - 42.4 42.3
D. Peters D. Peters F 33 17.0 4.0 3.5 1.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 4.0 5.5 - - - - 44.4 0 73.7 - 46.7 44.4
A. Taylor A. Taylor F 27 9.0 3.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.7 - - - - 58.6 0 68.3 - 63.1 58.6
T. Liston T. Liston G 29 7.9 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.0 1.8 - - - - 39.7 48.5 62.5 - 54.5 53.4
T. Taylor T. Taylor G 1 17.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 - - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
L. Moore L. Moore G 15 11.1 1.7 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.5 - - - - 32.0 33.3 62.5 - 45.6 42.0
N. McKenith N. McKenith G 8 3.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 - - - - 20.0 0.0 100.0 - 44.4 20.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2014 Shot Zones

2813 located field-goal attempts in 42 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Moore24% Augustus32% Augustus25% McCarville24% Moore26% Moore50% Thurig67% Moore43% Moore61% Moore47%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Whalen23% Augustus20% Moore24% Whalen20% Moore20% Thurig50% Moore33% Moore46% Moore63% Moore40%
Misses: who misses most here

M. MooreL. WhalenS. AugustusJ. McCarvilleMarc Thurig

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 599-896 66.9 1198 M. Moore 24% (292 pts) L. Whalen 22% (264 pts) L. Whalen 23% (69 misses) M. Moore 18% (53 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 152-426 35.7 304 S. Augustus 32% (96 pts) M. Moore 23% (70 pts) S. Augustus 20% (55 misses) M. Moore 18% (48 misses)
Mid-range left 174-463 37.6 348 S. Augustus 25% (88 pts) M. Moore 21% (72 pts) M. Moore 24% (70 misses) L. Whalen 21% (61 misses)
Mid-range center 86-213 40.4 172 J. McCarville 24% (42 pts) L. Whalen 22% (38 pts) L. Whalen 20% (25 misses) J. McCarville 16% (20 misses)
Mid-range right 144-344 41.9 288 M. Moore 26% (74 pts) S. Augustus 23% (66 pts) M. Moore 20% (41 misses) S. Augustus 18% (35 misses)
Left corner 3 8-18 44.4 24 M. Moore 50% (12 pts) Marc Thurig 38% (9 pts) Marc Thurig 50% (5 misses) J. McCarville 20% (2 misses)
Right corner 3 9-18 50.0 27 Marc Thurig 67% (18 pts) M. Moore 11% (3 pts) M. Moore 33% (3 misses) Marc Thurig 22% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 63-188 33.5 189 M. Moore 43% (81 pts) Marc Thurig 13% (24 pts) M. Moore 46% (57 misses) Marc Thurig 17% (21 misses)
Above-break 3 center 31-93 33.3 93 M. Moore 61% (57 pts) J. McCarville 10% (9 pts) M. Moore 63% (39 misses) J. McCarville 16% (10 misses)
Above-break 3 right 47-154 30.5 141 M. Moore 47% (66 pts) Marc Thurig 13% (18 pts) M. Moore 40% (43 misses) Marc Thurig 19% (20 misses)